Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Saturday, August 8, 2026
Top rbis spot: Jonathan Aranda
Jonathan Aranda (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP George Kirby. The lefty is driving in runs at .180 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .212 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And George Kirby has been getting lit up by righties lately — .154 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against George Kirby. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Osleivis Basabe (SF) (100) vs RHP Jackson Jobe: an elite bat at .229 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (96) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .150 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (94) vs RHP George Kirby: an excellent bat at .158 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.150).
- James McCann (AZ) (93) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: an elite bat at .186 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.174).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (86) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043).
- Vaughn Grissom (LAA) (79) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an elite bat at .188 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Jo Adell (CLE) (75) vs LHP Anthony Kay: an elite bat at .168 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.097), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .180 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .139 against righties this year.
- Jo Adell (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .213 against lefties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .140 against righties this year.
- Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Jonathan Aranda finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays