Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, August 19, 2026
Top rbis spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The lefty is driving in runs at .157 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a RBI in about 13% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been stingy with runs against lefties lately — .059 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Kyle Freeland too — .500 across 18 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .154 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (99) vs RHP Max Scherzer: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.125).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (93) vs RHP Max Scherzer: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.040).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (92) vs RHP Taj Bradley: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.250), hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (89) vs RHP Jackson Jobe: an excellent bat at .146 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (87) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at .139 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (87) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080).
Platoon edges to target
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .129 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays