Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Saturday, August 29, 2026
Top rbis spot: Kyle Schwarber
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is driving in runs at .138 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .210 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .037 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130), due to bounce back.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (90) vs RHP Zach Agnos: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.191), hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (82) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (81) vs RHP Walker Buehler: an excellent bat at .144 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105), hot bat.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (78) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.029).
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (77) vs LHP Matt Wilkinson: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (76) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.185), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .159 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .172 against righties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .144 against righties this year.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .203 against lefties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays