Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Friday, August 28, 2026
Top rbis spot: Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Tomoyuki Sugano. The lefty is driving in runs at .151 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .059 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting lit up by righties lately — .220 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Tomoyuki Sugano. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (99) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .148 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (89) vs RHP Casey Mize: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (85) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a strong bat at .132 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (82) vs RHP Drew Anderson: a strong bat at .134 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.116).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (82) vs RHP Casey Mize: a strong bat at .140 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.100).
- Jordan Walker (STL) (81) vs RHP Jared Jones: a strong bat at .136 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (81) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .131 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.220).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .138 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays