Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Monday, September 14, 2026
Top rbis spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jonah Tong. The righty is driving in runs at .168 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .154 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 16% of his trips. And Jonah Tong has been getting lit up by righties lately — .143 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jonah Tong. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jo Adell (CLE) (76) vs LHP Sean Newcomb: an excellent bat at .148 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.226).
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) (76) vs RHP Dean Kremer: an excellent bat at .144 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.115).
- Aaron Judge (NYY) (75) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214), due to bounce back.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) (69) vs RHP Will Warren: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.030).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (69) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a strong bat at .125 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.115).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (69) vs RHP Brandon Young: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.189).
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (68) vs RHP Reynaldo López: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.375).
Platoon edges to target
- Jo Adell (CLE) — righty bat vs LHP, .239 against lefties this year.
- Luis García Jr. (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .185 against righties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays