Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Monday, September 14, 2026
Top rbis spot: Pete Alonso
Pete Alonso (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jonah Tong. The righty is driving in runs at .168 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .179 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 18% of his trips. And Jonah Tong has been getting lit up by righties lately — .143 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jonah Tong. It all sets up in a neutral park, though the weather fights it.
The rest of the top of the board
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (100) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a solid bat at .118 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.350), hitter's park.
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) (100) vs RHP Corbin Burnes: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs LHP Kade Anderson: a strong bat at .126 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.086), hitter's park.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (100) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a strong bat at .124 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.035), hitter's park.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) (98) vs LHP Reid Detmers: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.035), hitter's park.
- Jose Siri (LAA) (94) vs LHP Kade Anderson: a solid bat at .115 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.086), hitter's park.
- Manny Machado (SD) (94) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .137 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.350), hitter's park.
Platoon edges to target
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .124 against lefties this year.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .115 against lefties this year.
- Cal Raleigh (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .115 against lefties this year.
- Jose Siri (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .138 against lefties this year.
- Julio Rodríguez (SEA) — righty bat vs LHP, .102 against lefties this year.
Best parks to drive in runs today
- Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+18% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) at 100.
- Angel Stadium is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% run-scoring park). Top bat there: Zach Neto (LAA) at 100.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Pete Alonso finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays