Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026
Top runs spot: Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen (KC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is scoring at .118 R/PA against righties this year — and .122 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been getting lit up by righties lately — .261 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Feltner. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (98) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), due to bounce back.
- Lane Thomas (KC) (97) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .107 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.389).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (96) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: an excellent bat at .168 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL) (94) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a solid bat at .126 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.143).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (93) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233).
- Matt Olson (ATL) (91) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (88) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .133 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
Platoon edges to target
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .118 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .165 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .151 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.