Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026
Top runs spot: Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen (KC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is scoring at .120 R/PA against righties this year — and .136 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been getting lit up by righties lately — .261 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Feltner. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), due to bounce back.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .136 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (99) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .134 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Lane Thomas (KC) (96) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .105 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.389).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (94) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: an excellent bat at .168 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (91) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a league-average bat at .113 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (89) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233).
Platoon edges to target
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Carter Jensen finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays