Best MLB Runs Matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026
Top runs spot: Carter Jensen
Carter Jensen (KC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is scoring at .120 R/PA against righties this year — and .136 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been getting lit up by righties lately — .261 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Feltner. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: a strong bat at .141 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), due to bounce back.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .136 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.130).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (99) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .134 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Lane Thomas (KC) (96) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .105 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.389).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (94) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: an excellent bat at .168 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.182), hot bat.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (91) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a league-average bat at .113 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (89) vs RHP Ronel Blanco: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.233).
Platoon edges to target
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .120 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Matt Olson (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .164 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Carter Jensen finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.