Best MLB Runs Matchups — Thursday, August 13, 2026
Top runs spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cade Cavalli. The lefty is scoring at .168 R/PA against righties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 15% of his trips. And Cade Cavalli has been getting lit up by righties lately — .160 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Cade Cavalli too — .500 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (100) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a solid bat at .128 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.161).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a strong bat at .135 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (96) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .150 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222), due to bounce back.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (96) vs RHP Taj Bradley: a strong bat at .142 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.161).
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) (96) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .124 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.081).
- Sal Stewart (CIN) (93) vs RHP Davis Martin: a solid bat at .123 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.421).
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (92) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: a solid bat at .129 into an arm letting runs score against the same side (.118), due to bounce back.
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
- Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .180 against righties this year.
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .125 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays