Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, August 14, 2026
Top runs spot: Jonah Cox
Jonah Cox (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is scoring at — R/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a run in about 12% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been letting runs score against lefties lately — .118 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Kyle Freeland. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (100) vs RHP Robert Stock: a strong bat at .140 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.214).
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) (100) vs LHP Gage Jump: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.210).
- Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (94) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .135 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.227).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (89) vs RHP Clay Holmes: a strong bat at .144 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.286).
- Gleyber Torres (DET) (88) vs LHP Sean Newcomb: a strong bat at .138 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.154).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (87) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .134 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.042), due to bounce back.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (83) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a strong bat at .134 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.200).
Platoon edges to target
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .186 against lefties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .179 against righties this year.
- Gleyber Torres (DET) — righty bat vs LHP, .190 against lefties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .130 against righties this year.
How it played out
4 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Jonah Cox finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays