Best MLB Runs Matchups — Wednesday, August 12, 2026
Top runs spot: Gunnar Henderson
Gunnar Henderson (BAL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. The lefty is scoring at .142 R/PA against righties this year — and .182 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a run in about 13% of his trips. And Zebby Matthews has been getting lit up by righties lately — .286 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zebby Matthews. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (100) vs RHP George Klassen: a solid bat at .125 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.077).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (100) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a solid bat at .130 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.259).
- Yandy Díaz (TB) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a solid bat at .122 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.158).
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (99) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a strong bat at .148 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (99) vs LHP Jackson Kent: a strong bat at .135 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (97) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .124 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.167).
Platoon edges to target
- Gunnar Henderson (BAL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .140 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
- Corbin Carroll (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .195 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play Gunnar Henderson finished with 1 run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — our number set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays