Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, September 18, 2026
Top runs spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Chase Burns. The lefty is scoring at .182 R/PA against righties this year — and .286 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 16% of his trips. And Chase Burns has been stingy with runs against righties lately — .000 runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Chase Burns. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (90) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .149 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (89) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .160 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (88) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043), due to bounce back.
- Luke Keaschall (MIN) (87) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .133 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.188).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (85) vs RHP David Sandlin: a strong bat at .148 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Zach Neto (LAA) (83) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a strong bat at .135 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (82) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .142 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .162 against righties this year.
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .155 against lefties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .132 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays