Best MLB Runs Matchups — Friday, September 18, 2026
Top runs spot: James Wood
James Wood (WSH) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Kyle Leahy. The lefty is scoring at .194 R/PA against righties this year — and .037 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a run in about 17% of his trips. And Kyle Leahy has been getting lit up by righties lately — .227 runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Kyle Leahy, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (100) vs LHP Cesar Perdomo: a strong bat at .134 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Luke Keaschall (MIN) (100) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .132 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.188).
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs RHP Chase Burns: an excellent bat at .162 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000).
- Zach Neto (LAA) (98) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (95) vs RHP Tyler Mahle: an excellent bat at .161 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.071).
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) (94) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .155 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.043), due to bounce back.
- Randy Arozarena (SEA) (94) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a strong bat at .146 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .194 against righties this year.
- Teoscar Hernández (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .158 against lefties this year.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .182 against righties this year.
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .160 against lefties this year.
- JJ Wetherholt (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 runs matchups landed at least one run. Top play James Wood finished with 0 runs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's runs scored per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the runs board is
The Runs board projects the chance a hitter scores a run. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His on-base ability at the top of the order.
- The bats due up behind him.
- The opposing run-prevention.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Like RBIs, runs is a lumpy market that grades efficient once you model the clustering honestly. Transparency board — the WizLine set beside the line, graded.
How to use it
Useful context for top-of-the-order run creation, not a lean.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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