Best MLB Singles Matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Top singles spot: Fernando Tatis Jr.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The righty is hitting .188 H/PA against righties this year — and .147 over the last two weeks, a below-average bat that turns into a hit in about 16% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been tough on righties lately — .000 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .143 in 7 career PA against Michael Lorenzen, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Luis Arraez (SF) (99) vs RHP Logan Henderson: a league-average bat at .204 into an arm tough on the same side (.038).
- Cole Young (SEA) (89) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: a below-average bat at .175 into an arm tough on the same side (.091).
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (89) vs LHP Jake Bennett: a below-average bat at .151 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (82) vs RHP Luis Castillo: a below-average bat at .177 into an arm tough on the same side (.067), hot bat.
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) (82) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a below-average bat at .148 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
- TJ Rumfield (COL) (81) vs RHP Michael King: a below-average bat at .178 into an arm tough on the same side (.133).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (80) vs RHP Michael King: a below-average bat at .156 into an arm tough on the same side (.133).
Platoon edges to target
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .221 against righties this year.
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .154 against lefties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .176 against righties this year.
- Jake Cronenworth (SD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .141 against righties this year.
- TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .171 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Freddie Freeman (LAD), Luis Rengifo (SD), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Randy Arozarena (SEA), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jackson Chourio (MIL). Cold but due to bounce back: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Isaac Paredes (HOU), Jose Altuve (HOU), and Wade Meckler (LAA).
How it played out
5 of the top 10 singles matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Fernando Tatis Jr. finished with 3 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.