Best MLB Singles Matchups — Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Top singles spot: Trevor Larnach
Trevor Larnach (MIN) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Dobnak. The lefty is lining singles at .177 1B/PA against righties this year — and .238 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a single in about 17% of his trips. And Randy Dobnak has been prone to base hits from righties lately — .158 singles per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Randy Dobnak. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Cole Young (SEA) (100) vs LHP Eric Lauer: an excellent bat at .181 into an arm fairly stingy against the same side (.125).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (100) vs RHP Brady Singer: an elite bat at .197 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.219).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (98) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .156 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.280).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (97) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an elite bat at .199 into an arm tough to string hits off the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (92) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an excellent bat at .190 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Bo Bichette (NYM) (90) vs RHP AJ Smith-Shawver: an elite bat at .194 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Michael Busch (CHC) (89) vs RHP Dustin May: a strong bat at .156 into an arm getting picked apart by the same side (.250).
Platoon edges to target
- Trevor Larnach (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .149 against righties this year.
- Michael Busch (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .131 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Pedro Ramírez (CHC), Drake Baldwin (ATL), and Luis Arraez (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Nick Kurtz (ATH), Jordan Walker (STL), Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Sam Antonacci (CWS), and Yandy Díaz (TB).
How it played out
3 of the top 10 singles matchups landed at least one single. Top play Trevor Larnach finished with 0 singles. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these singles matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's singles per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.