Who has the best total bases matchup today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?

Willi Castro (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Sunday, June 7, 2026: Willi Castro (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Kyle Schwarber (97), Sam Antonacci (97), Brice Turang (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Sunday, June 7, 2026?

Yes — Willi Castro got 2 total bases.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Shane Drohan has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Ezequiel Tovar (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL). LHP Kyle Freeland has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL). LHP Tyler Gilbert has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI). RHP Aaron Nola has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Edgar Quero (CWS).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, June 7, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, June 7, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on our total-bases over/under, against 53% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 53%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 52%

Full slate

118/22453%

season 51%

Top call Willi Castro came through. Jackson Chourio didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–3

PITaway

ATLhomeTop matchup74 Final · 5–9

CWSaway

PHIhomeTop matchup97 Final · 1–6

BOSaway

NYYhomeTop matchup85 Final · 4–6

BALaway

TORhomeTop matchup67 Final · 4–5

SEAaway

DEThomeTop matchup74 Final · 1–4

TBaway

MIAhomeTop matchup74 Final · 5–0

ATHaway

HOUhomeTop matchup74 Final · 6–5

KCaway

MINhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–5

CINaway

STLhomeTop matchup85 Final · 0–10

CLEaway

TEXhomeTop matchup74 Final · 12–4

MILaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–5

WSHaway

AZhomeTop matchup74 Final · 13–5

LAAaway

LADhomeTop matchup85 Final · 7–3

NYMaway

SDhomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–1

SFaway

CHChomeTop matchup67

Not starting47 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 317 shownScore

174 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Carson BengeRF
NYM@SD· 5-for-5
10TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #19
2
Dalton RushingC
LADvsLAA· 4-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #157
T2
Matt McLain2B
CIN@STL· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #175
4
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@COL· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T4
Jo AdellRF
LAA@LAD· 4-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #158
T4
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@STL· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #203
7
Gary SánchezC
MIL@COL· 2-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #71
T7
Brent RookerDH
ATH@HOU· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #143
T7
Sebastián RiveroC
LAA@LAD· 5-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #233
T7
Freddy FerminC
SDvsNYM· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #248
11
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@COL· 3-for-6
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #2
T11
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@COL· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T11
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T11
Cody BellingerLF
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T11
Josh Jung3B
TEXvsCLE· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #65
T11
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsSEA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #67
T11
Otto LopezSS
MIAvsTB· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #70
T11
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsBAL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #84
T11
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsWSH· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #91
T11
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsCLE· 4-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #147
T11
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@SD· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #167
T11
Colton CowserCF
BAL@TOR· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #202
T11
Spencer Horwitz1B
PIT@ATL· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
24
Zach NetoSS
LAA@LAD· 1-for-6
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T24
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsMIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T24
Nick Kurtz1B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T24
Taylor WardDH
BAL@TOR· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #58
T24
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsWSH· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #64
T24
Starling MarteRF
KC@MIN· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T24
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsBOS· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #111
T24
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@AZ· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #121
T24
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #123
T24
Josh BellDH
MINvsKC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #132
T24
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@PHI· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #153
T24
Bryan TorresLF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #155
T24
Ryan WardLF
LADvsLAA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #173
T24
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #177
T24
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsBAL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #201
T24
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsCLE· 3-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #211
T24
Rafael MarchánC
PHIvsCWS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #217
T24
MJ MelendezDH
NYM@SD· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #221
T24
Michael HelmanCF
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #240
T24
Wenceel PérezRF
DETvsSEA· 2-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #263
T24
Blaze Alexander3B
BAL@TOR· 2-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #270
T24
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
46
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #14
T46
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #16
T46
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@SD· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T46
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsCIN· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #78
T46
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@DET· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T46
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsCWS· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #98
T46
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KC@MIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #133
T46
Ian HappLF
CHCvsSF· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #161
T46
Nick Loftin3B
KC@MIN· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #170
T46
Jose SiriCF
LAA@LAD· 3-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #200
T46
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TOR· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #253
T46
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsBAL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #254
T46
Jesús SánchezRF
TORvsBAL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T46
Luke RaleyRF
SEA@DET· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
60
Willi Castro2B
COLvsMIL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #1
T60
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@PHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #4
T60
Ezequiel TovarSS
COLvsMIL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T60
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsLAA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T60
William ContrerasC
MIL@COL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T60
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYYvsBOS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #18
T60
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsNYM· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #20
T60
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsLAA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #23
T60
Cole Young2B
SEA@DET· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T60
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@PHI· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T60
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@NYY· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T60
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@LAD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #50
T60
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsCIN· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #52
T60
Curtis Mead3B
WSH@AZ· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T60
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #100
T60
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsKC· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T60
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsPIT· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #117
T60
Luis RengifoLF
MIL@COL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #134
T60
Randal GrichukDH
CWS@PHI· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #136
T60
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsATH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #144
T60
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@HOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #180
T60
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsWSH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #183
T60
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@COL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #190
T60
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsMIL· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #191
T60
Brett Baty3B
NYM@SD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #193
T60
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsKC· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #195
T60
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #208
T60
Keibert RuizC
WSH@AZ· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #209
T60
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsWSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #210
T60
David FryRF
CLE@TEX· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #212
T60
José CaballeroSS
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #219
T60
Matt Chapman3B
SF@CHC· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #226
T60
Colt EmersonSS
SEA@DET· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #243
T60
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CIN@STL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB
T60
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T60
Braxton FulfordDH
COLvsMIL· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T60
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@NYY· 1-for-1
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T60
Steven KwanLF
CLE@TEX· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
98
Brice Turang2B
MIL@COL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #5
T98
Blake DunnCF
CIN@STL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T98
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@PHI· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T98
Tristan GraySS
MINvsKC· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #21
T98
Lane ThomasLF
KC@MIN· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T98
Nicky Lopez2B
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T98
Yandy DíazDH
TB@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T98
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T98
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #55
T98
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #61
T98
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #68
T98
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #69
T98
Maikel Garcia3B
KC@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #76
T98
Dane MyersCF
CIN@STL· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #77
T98
Max Muncy3B
LADvsLAA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #80
T98
Shea LangeliersC
ATH@HOU· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #89
T98
Evan CarterCF
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T98
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T98
Kyle Stowers1B
MIAvsTB· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T98
Richie Palacios2B
TB@MIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #97
T98
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@PHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T98
Jared Young1B
NYM@SD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #101
T98
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #105
T98
Alex CallLF
LADvsLAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #107
T98
Luis Arraez2B
SF@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #113
T98
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #114
T98
Adley RutschmanC
BAL@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #116
T98
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsWSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #122
T98
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@DET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #126
T98
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #129
T98
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@SD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #130
T98
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #131
T98
Pavin Smith1B
AZvsWSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #146
T98
Mickey GasperC
BOS@NYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #156
T98
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #162
T98
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #163
T98
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #169
T98
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #172
T98
Nick Madrigal3B
LAA@LAD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #174
T98
José FermínLF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #176
T98
Angel MartínezLF
CLE@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #185
T98
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #189
T98
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #197
T98
Nelson VelázquezLF
STLvsCIN· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #204
T98
Jake MangumCF
PIT@ATL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #206
T98
Patrick Wisdom3B
SEA@DET· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #213
T98
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #214
T98
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsTB· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #215
T98
Ryan ViladeRF
TB@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #216
T98
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@NYY· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #220
T98
Samad TaylorLF
SDvsNYM· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #222
T98
Carter JensenC
KC@MIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #223
T98
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #224
T98
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #225
T98
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #227
T98
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #228
T98
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #229
T98
Patrick BaileyC
CLE@TEX· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #241
T98
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsSEA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #242
T98
Hunter FeducciaC
TB@MIA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #245
T98
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsKC· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #249
T98
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #250
T98
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@ATL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #256
T98
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #258
T98
Elias DíazC
TEXvsCLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #261
T98
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@DET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #264
T98
Carson KellyC
CHCvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #268
T98
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsBAL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #269
T98
Moisés BallesterosDH
CHCvsSF· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T98
Amed Rosario3B
NYYvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T98
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsTB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB
T98
Blake PerkinsCF
MIL@COL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T98
Miguel AndujarDH
SDvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T98
Rikuu NishidaRF
CWS@PHI· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB
T98
LuJames Groover1B
AZvsWSH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T98
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsATH· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
T98
Sandy LeónC
ATLvsPIT· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, June 7, 2026

Willi Castro (COL) is the top total bases matchup on the Sunday, June 7, 2026 board at 100, with Jackson Chourio (MIL) and Kyle Schwarber (PHI) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Willi Castro

Willi Castro (COL) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. The righty is racking up bases at — TB/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 37% of his trips. And Shane Drohan has been thin against lefties lately. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Shane Drohan. It all sets up in a hitter's park.

The rest of the top of the board

Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (97) vs LHP Tyler Gilbert: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Sam Antonacci (CWS) (97) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
Brice Turang (MIL) (91) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park, hot bat.
Ezequiel Tovar (COL) (91) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hitter's park.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (85) vs RHP José Soriano: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Zach Neto (LAA) (85) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: a solid bat at .370 into an arm with little track record against the same side.

Arms giving up extra bases today

LHP Shane Drohan has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Ezequiel Tovar (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL).
LHP Kyle Freeland has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
LHP Tyler Gilbert has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI).
RHP Aaron Nola has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Edgar Quero (CWS).

Best parks for total bases today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.

How it played out

8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Willi Castro finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?: Willi Castro (COL) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Shane Drohan. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Sunday, June 7, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Sunday, June 7, 2026: Willi Castro (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Kyle Schwarber (97), Sam Antonacci (97), Brice Turang (91). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Sunday, June 7, 2026?: Yes — Willi Castro got 2 total bases.
Which parks favor total bases today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% extra-base park). Top bat there: Willi Castro (COL) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Shane Drohan has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Willi Castro (COL), Ezequiel Tovar (COL), and TJ Rumfield (COL). LHP Kyle Freeland has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL). LHP Tyler Gilbert has been giving up bases to lefties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Bryce Harper (PHI). RHP Aaron Nola has been giving up bases to righties — .360 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sam Antonacci (CWS), Miguel Vargas (CWS), and Edgar Quero (CWS).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.