Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, August 9, 2026
Top total bases spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Randy Vásquez. The righty is racking up bases at .494 TB/PA against righties this year — and .729 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 49% of his trips. And Randy Vásquez has been tough on righties lately — .048 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Randy Vásquez, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: a strong bat at .468 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.381).
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (100) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: a league-average bat at .333 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.871).
- Junior Caminero (TB) (96) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at .486 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500), due to bounce back.
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (96) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: a solid bat at .372 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.871).
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) (94) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .459 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.345).
- Ketel Marte (AZ) (91) vs LHP Justin Wrobleski: a solid bat at .379 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.871), due to bounce back.
- Alec Burleson (STL) (91) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a strong bat at .427 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.381), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Justin Wrobleski has been getting squared up by lefties — .461 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Ketel Marte (AZ).
- RHP Davis Martin has been getting squared up by righties — .420 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Nathaniel Lowe (CLE).
- LHP Cade Povich has been vulnerable to lefties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Corey Seager (TEX), and Wyatt Langford (TEX).
- RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .410 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Bo Bichette (NYM), Francisco Lindor (NYM), and A.J. Ewing (NYM).
Platoon edges to target
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .257 against lefties this year.
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .398 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Stowers (MIA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .446 against righties this year.
- Ketel Marte (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .520 against lefties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .493 against righties this year.
How it played out
6 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Jeremy Peña finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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