Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, August 10, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Noah Cameron. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, August 10, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Monday, August 10, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Tyler Soderstrom (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (99), Yandy Díaz (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, August 10, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 3 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .419 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .458 against righties this year. Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .422 against lefties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .325 against righties this year. Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Jameson Taillon has been getting squared up by righties — .459 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Wilyer Abreu (BOS), and Nick Sogard (BOS). RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Jeff McNeil (ATH), and Carlos Cortes (ATH). RHP Dean Kremer has been getting squared up by righties — .420 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Tyler O'Neill (BAL). RHP Casey Mize has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Monday, August 10, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, August 10, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, August 10, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on our total-bases over/under, against 46% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 46%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 46%

Full slate

92/17652%

season 50%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Jake McCarthy didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 1–2

BOSaway

TORhomeTop matchup99 Final · 8–5

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup78 Final · 5–9

BALaway

MINhomeTop matchup88 Final · 6–5

PHIaway

STLhomeTop matchup72 Final · 4–1

TEXaway

LAAhomeTop matchup88 Final · 0–9

COLaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 10–6

TBaway

ATHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–3

MILaway

SDhomeTop matchup91 Final · 6–3

HOUaway

SFhomeTop matchup90 Final · 5–6

KCaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting43 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 223 shownScore

110 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Austin MartinRF
MINvsBAL· 4-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #32
2
Yandy DíazDH
TB@ATH· 3-for-4
7TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #5
T2
Francisco LindorSS
NYM@ATL· 3-for-5
7TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
4
Cam SmithRF
HOU@SF· 3-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #143
T4
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsTB· 2-for-4
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #145
6
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsHOU· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #18
T6
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T6
Josh BellDH
MINvsBAL· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T6
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@LAD· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #47
T6
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #59
T6
Ty France1B
SDvsMIL· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #122
12
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #17
T12
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsPHI· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T12
Junior Caminero3B
TB@ATH· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #41
T12
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsMIL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T12
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsHOU· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #130
T12
Charles McAdoo2B
TORvsBOS· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #134
T12
Christian YelichDH
MIL@SD· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #156
T12
Brett Baty3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #161
T12
Kyle IsbelCF
KC@LAD· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #177
21
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsKC· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #1
T21
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@SD· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T21
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T21
Nick Loftin3B
KC@LAD· 2-for-2
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #30
T21
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@SF· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T21
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T21
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsPHI· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T21
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@STL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #49
T21
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@ATH· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #54
T21
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #55
T21
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsKC· 3-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #57
T21
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #62
T21
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@SF· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #94
T21
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@MIN· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #101
T21
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@MIN· 1-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #110
T21
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@STL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T21
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #116
38
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsTB· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #2
T38
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@TOR· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #4
T38
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsTB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T38
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T38
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsCOL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #19
T38
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@LAA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #24
T38
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsTB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T38
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@SD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #44
T38
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@MIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #48
T38
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsTB· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #52
T38
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@ATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #53
T38
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@STL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #56
T38
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsTEX· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #69
T38
Elias DíazC
TEX@LAA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T38
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsCOL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #93
T38
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #97
T38
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsHOU· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #104
T38
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #111
T38
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsTB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #123
T38
Jared Young1B
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #124
T38
Masyn WinnSS
STLvsPHI· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #125
T38
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@AZ· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #126
T38
Chandler SimpsonLF
TB@ATH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #127
T38
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@STL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #131
T38
Max Muncy3B
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #152
T38
Freddy FerminC
SDvsMIL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #162
T38
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #164
T38
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #174
T38
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsKC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #175
T38
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsKC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #176
T38
Sean MurphyC
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #178
T38
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #179
70
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #3
T70
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@SF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #9
T70
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T70
Osleivis Basabe2B
SFvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #16
T70
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #21
T70
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@LAA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #26
T70
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T70
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@LAA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T70
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T70
Jake Burger1B
TEX@LAA· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #45
T70
Willi Castro2B
COL@AZ· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #58
T70
Michael Massey2B
KC@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #65
T70
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@LAA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #66
T70
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #71
T70
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T70
George SpringerDH
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #76
T70
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T70
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T70
Oswald Peraza2B
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #90
T70
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #98
T70
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #99
T70
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsMIL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #103
T70
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@STL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #115
T70
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #117
T70
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #128
T70
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T70
Taylor WallsSS
TB@ATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #132
T70
Connor WongC
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #136
T70
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #141
T70
Colton CowserCF
BAL@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #142
T70
José FermínLF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #144
T70
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #148
T70
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #149
T70
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #151
T70
Ryan KreidlerSS
MINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #154
T70
Josh Smith2B
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #155
T70
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #157
T70
Luis LaraRF
MIL@SD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #158
T70
Christian Koss3B
SFvsHOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #167
T70
Jorge PolancoDH
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #173
T70
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, August 10, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top total bases matchup on the Monday, August 10, 2026 board at 100, with Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) and Jake McCarthy (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Noah Cameron. The lefty is racking up bases at .512 TB/PA against lefties this year — and .667 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 45% of his trips. And Noah Cameron has been tough on lefties lately — .111 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Noah Cameron too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) (100) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a solid bat at .400 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.792), hot bat.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Michael Soroka: a strong bat at .426 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (99) vs RHP Jameson Taillon: a strong bat at .443 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.941).
Yandy Díaz (TB) (97) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: a solid bat at .405 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.447).
Jeff McNeil (ATH) (94) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: a league-average bat at .348 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.792).
Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (94) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: a solid bat at .415 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (91) vs RHP Casey Mize: a solid bat at .408 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.818).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Jameson Taillon has been getting squared up by righties — .459 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Wilyer Abreu (BOS), and Nick Sogard (BOS).
RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Jeff McNeil (ATH), and Carlos Cortes (ATH).
RHP Dean Kremer has been getting squared up by righties — .420 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Tyler O'Neill (BAL).
RHP Casey Mize has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .419 against righties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .458 against righties this year.
Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .422 against lefties this year.
Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .325 against righties this year.
Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.

How it played out

9 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, August 10, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Noah Cameron. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, August 10, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Monday, August 10, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Tyler Soderstrom (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (99), Yandy Díaz (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, August 10, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 3 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .419 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .458 against righties this year. Yandy Díaz (TB) — righty bat vs LHP, .422 against lefties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .325 against righties this year. Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .333 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Jameson Taillon has been getting squared up by righties — .459 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Wilyer Abreu (BOS), and Nick Sogard (BOS). RHP Freddy Peralta has been getting squared up by righties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Jeff McNeil (ATH), and Carlos Cortes (ATH). RHP Dean Kremer has been getting squared up by righties — .420 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Tyler O'Neill (BAL). RHP Casey Mize has been vulnerable to righties — .413 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Brice Turang (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.