Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Top total bases spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Feltner. The lefty is racking up bases at .448 TB/PA against righties this year — and .656 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 46% of his trips. And Ryan Feltner has been tough on righties lately — .276 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .091 in 11 career PA against Ryan Feltner, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) (95) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .488 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.438).
- Trent Grisham (NYY) (95) vs RHP Shane Baz: a strong bat at .443 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.483), due to bounce back.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (95) vs RHP Bryce Miller: a solid bat at .372 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.656).
- Jonah Cox (SF) (91) vs LHP Foster Griffin: a solid bat at .370 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.600).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (91) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a solid bat at .397 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.560).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (89) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a solid bat at .378 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.867).
- Abimelec Ortiz (WSH) (89) vs RHP Cal Quantrill: an excellent bat at .487 into an arm tough on the same side (.269).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Eric Lauer has been getting squared up by lefties — .432 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL).
- RHP Bryce Miller has been getting squared up by righties — .430 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Jake Bauers (MIL).
- RHP Cristian Javier has been getting squared up by righties — .428 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Mike Trout (LAA), Zach Neto (LAA), and Wade Meckler (LAA).
- LHP Foster Griffin has been vulnerable to lefties — .419 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonah Cox (SF), Victor Bericoto (SF), and Rafael Devers (SF).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .448 against righties this year.
- Wilyer Abreu (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .404 against righties this year.
- Trent Grisham (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .366 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .437 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .490 against righties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 4 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays