Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Saturday, August 29, 2026
Top total bases spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Merrill Kelly. The lefty is racking up bases at .509 TB/PA against righties this year — and .767 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 48% of his trips. And Merrill Kelly has been getting squared up by righties lately — .481 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .222 in 18 career PA against Merrill Kelly. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Zach Neto (LAA) (100) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a strong bat at .436 into an arm giving up bases to the same side (.356).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Zach Agnos: a strong bat at .426 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.429), hot bat.
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .477 into an arm tough on the same side (.304), due to bounce back.
- Drew Gilbert (SF) (97) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .432 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.481).
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) (96) vs LHP Matt Wilkinson: a solid bat at .382 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.789).
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (94) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a strong bat at .452 into an arm tough on the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (93) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: a strong bat at .430 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.556).
Arms giving up extra bases today
- LHP Matt Wilkinson has been getting squared up by lefties — .447 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Ildemaro Vargas (AZ), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Geraldo Perdomo (AZ).
- RHP Merrill Kelly has been vulnerable to righties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Rafael Devers (SF), Drew Gilbert (SF), and Bryce Eldridge (SF).
- RHP Nick Martinez has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Ty France (SD).
- LHP Martín Pérez has been vulnerable to lefties — .383 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Hunter Goodman (COL), and Cole Carrigg (COL).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .509 against righties this year.
- Zach Neto (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .427 against lefties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .429 against righties this year.
- Drew Gilbert (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .387 against righties this year.
- Ildemaro Vargas (AZ) — righty bat vs LHP, .496 against lefties this year.
How it played out
7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Rafael Devers finished with 3 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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