Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Sunday, August 30, 2026
Top total bases spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Chase Burns. The lefty is racking up bases at .482 TB/PA against righties this year — and .581 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a total base in about 45% of his trips. And Chase Burns has been getting squared up by righties lately — .778 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 1 career PA against Chase Burns, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jared Triolo (PIT) (75) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: a league-average bat at .355 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.625), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (75) vs RHP Mason Adams: a strong bat at .426 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) (73) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: an excellent bat at .522 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.382).
- Brooks Lee (MIN) (72) vs RHP Jordan Hicks: a strong bat at .471 into an arm tough on the same side (.111).
- Michael Busch (CHC) (72) vs RHP Chase Burns: a league-average bat at .356 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.778).
- Wade Meckler (LAA) (71) vs RHP Zack Wheeler: a league-average bat at .340 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.875).
- Heriberto Hernández (MIA) (69) vs LHP Andrew Alvarez: a solid bat at .399 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.407), hot bat.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Zack Wheeler has been getting squared up by righties — .450 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Wade Meckler (LAA), Moisés Ballesteros (LAA), and Josh Lowe (LAA).
- RHP Chase Burns has been getting squared up by righties — .439 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Michael Busch (CHC), and Ian Happ (CHC).
- LHP Yusei Kikuchi has been getting squared up by lefties — .433 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Bohm (PHI), Trea Turner (PHI), and Kyle Schwarber (PHI).
- LHP Matthew Liberatore has been getting squared up by lefties — .429 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jared Triolo (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT).
Platoon edges to target
- Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .482 against righties this year.
- Jared Triolo (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .301 against lefties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year.
- Coby Mayo (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .682 against lefties this year.
- Brooks Lee (MIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .467 against righties this year.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 8 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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