Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, August 31, 2026)?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Pfaadt. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, August 31, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Monday, August 31, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Bryce Harper (93), Pete Alonso (91), Jake McCarthy (90), Luis Arraez (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, August 31, 2026?

No — Kyle Schwarber didn't record a total base.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .441 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .504 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year. Mickey Gasper (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .440 against righties this year. Jeremy Peña (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .358 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Cade Povich has been getting squared up by lefties — .485 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Mickey Moniak (COL). RHP Brandon Pfaadt has been getting squared up by righties — .458 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Luis Arraez (PHI). RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). LHP Anthony Kay has been vulnerable to lefties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Monday, August 31, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, August 31, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, August 31, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 1/5 (20%) on our total-bases over/under, against 45% on the season.

Top call Bryce Harper came through. Kyle Schwarber didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 7–3

SFaway

ATLhomeTop matchup61 Final · 5–0

SDaway

CINhomeTop matchup65 Final · 3–2

NYMaway

TBhomeTop matchup70 Final · 8–9

SEAaway

BOShomeTop matchup79 Final · 3–6

MIAaway

WSHhomeTop matchup69 Final · 1–11

DETaway

MINhomeTop matchup65 Final · 3–17

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup75 Final · 1–8

ATHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup66 Final · 3–6

CWSaway

HOUhomeTop matchup77 Final · 2–1

BALaway

COLhomeTop matchup91 Final · 1–10

NYYaway

LAAhomeTop matchup54 Final · 2–1

PHIaway

AZhomeTop matchup100

Not starting54 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 270 shownScore

148 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsMIL· 3-for-6
12TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #89
2
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsMIA· 3-for-3
9TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #25
3
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@BOS· 4-for-5
8TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #10
T3
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsDET· 2-for-3
8TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #110
5
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsMIL· 4-for-6
7TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #108
6
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsMIL· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #81
T6
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@HOU· 2-for-3
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #154
T6
Carson KellyC
CHCvsMIL· 3-for-5
6TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #188
9
Roman AnthonyLF
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #15
T9
Jonah CoxCF
SF@ATL· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #56
T9
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@BOS· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #62
T9
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSF· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #71
T9
Manny Machado3B
SD@CIN· 4-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #99
T9
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsCWS· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #107
T9
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsNYY· 3-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #139
T9
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@CHC· 2-for-4
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #178
T9
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DET@MIN· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #182
18
Mickey GasperDH
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #6
T18
Mark Vientos1B
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #13
T18
Rafael Devers1B
SF@ATL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #28
T18
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@AZ· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #31
T18
Kody Clemens2B
MINvsDET· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #59
T18
Cal RaleighC
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #73
T18
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsATH· 1-for-2
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #93
T18
Nelson VelázquezLF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #116
T18
Osleivis Basabe2B
SF@ATL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #119
T18
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #130
T18
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #165
T18
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@LAA· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #190
T18
Walker JenkinsCF
MINvsDET· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #191
T18
Matt ShawRF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #198
T18
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-1
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
33
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@AZ· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #2
T33
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsSF· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #30
T33
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsDET· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T33
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsATH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T33
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsPHI· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #42
T33
Ty France1B
SD@CIN· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #96
T33
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #109
T33
Andrew KniznerC
SF@ATL· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #127
T33
Trevor StorySS
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #138
T33
Christian Moore2B
LAAvsNYY· 2-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #196
T33
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@WSH· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #206
44
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #12
T44
Dylan BeaversLF
BAL@COL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #21
T44
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #24
T44
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@CIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T44
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CIN· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #36
T44
Liam HicksC
TBvsNYM· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T44
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@WSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T44
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsSEA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #55
T44
Samuel BasalloC
BAL@COL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #58
T44
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsBAL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #61
T44
Troy JohnstonRF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #66
T44
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@LAA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #69
T44
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsNYY· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #74
T44
Jared Young1B
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T44
Keibert RuizC
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #82
T44
Dustin HarrisLF
SD@CIN· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #90
T44
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@BOS· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #92
T44
William ContrerasC
MIL@CHC· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #94
T44
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSD· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #95
T44
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsNYM· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #103
T44
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@LAA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #106
T44
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsNYY· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #111
T44
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsATH· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #112
T44
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@ATL· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #133
T44
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsATH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #140
T44
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@TB· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #142
T44
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@WSH· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #147
T44
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #157
T44
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@CIN· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #160
T44
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsDET· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #161
T44
Brady House3B
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #167
T44
Luis CampusanoC
SD@CIN· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #177
T44
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsSF· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #180
T44
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZvsPHI· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #201
T44
Andrew PinckneyLF
WSHvsMIA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #204
T44
Jonah HeimC
ATH@TEX· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #207
T44
Tyler HeinemanC
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #209
T44
Nate Furman2B
SF@ATL· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #216
82
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 2.0 TB, #4
T82
Luis Arraez2B
PHI@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #5
T82
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #7
T82
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T82
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #16
T82
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@COL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #18
T82
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsBAL· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #19
T82
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsDET· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #20
T82
Carson BengeRF
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #23
T82
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #26
T82
Héctor RodríguezRF
CINvsSD· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T82
Otto LopezSS
MIA@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T82
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T82
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T82
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T82
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsPHI· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #43
T82
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #45
T82
Agustín RamírezDH
MIA@WSH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #53
T82
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #57
T82
Connor Norby2B
COLvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #63
T82
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #67
T82
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #68
T82
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #70
T82
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #77
T82
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsPHI· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
T82
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@COL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #80
T82
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #83
T82
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #87
T82
Brett CallahanLF
DET@MIN· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #88
T82
Garrett StubbsC
PHI@AZ· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #104
T82
Christopher Morel1B
NYM@TB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T82
Willi Castro2B
COLvsBAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #115
T82
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #117
T82
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #122
T82
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #124
T82
Marcus Semien2B
NYM@TB· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #129
T82
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #134
T82
Nolan Arenado3B
AZvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #135
T82
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsNYM· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #137
T82
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@CHC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #141
T82
Sean MurphyC
ATLvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #145
T82
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #146
T82
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsNYY· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #148
T82
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsDET· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #149
T82
Zach McKinstryRF
DET@MIN· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #151
T82
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #152
T82
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZvsPHI· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #153
T82
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #156
T82
Brian NavarretoC
MIA@WSH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #158
T82
Taylor WardDH
SEA@BOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #159
T82
Weston Wilson3B
SEA@BOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #162
T82
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #163
T82
Jordan BeckLF
COLvsBAL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #164
T82
Francisco AlvarezC
NYM@TB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #168
T82
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@LAA· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #170
T82
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #181
T82
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #183
T82
Connor WongC
BOSvsSEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #185
T82
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@HOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #186
T82
Carlos CortesRF
ATH@TEX· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #187
T82
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #192
T82
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsNYM· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #194
T82
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEA@BOS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #200
T82
Matt McLain2B
CINvsSD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #203
T82
David Hamilton3B
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #212
T82
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #213
T82
Dane MyersCF
CINvsSD· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Monday, August 31, 2026

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) is the top total bases matchup on the Monday, August 31, 2026 board at 100, with Bryce Harper (PHI) and Pete Alonso (BAL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Kyle Schwarber

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Pfaadt. The lefty is racking up bases at .441 TB/PA against righties this year — and .465 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 41% of his trips. And Brandon Pfaadt has been getting squared up by righties lately — .815 total bases per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 6 career PA against Brandon Pfaadt, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Bryce Harper (PHI) (93) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .435 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.815).
Pete Alonso (BAL) (91) vs RHP Tanner Gordon: a strong bat at .454 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.800).
Jake McCarthy (COL) (90) vs LHP Cade Povich: a league-average bat at .365 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Luis Arraez (PHI) (83) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a solid bat at .403 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.815).
Mickey Gasper (BOS) (79) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .479 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.417).
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (77) vs LHP Anthony Kay: a solid bat at .400 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500).
Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (75) vs LHP Kyle Harrison: an excellent bat at .503 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.333).

Arms giving up extra bases today

LHP Cade Povich has been getting squared up by lefties — .485 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Mickey Moniak (COL).
RHP Brandon Pfaadt has been getting squared up by righties — .458 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Luis Arraez (PHI).
RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
LHP Anthony Kay has been vulnerable to lefties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).

Platoon edges to target

Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .441 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .504 against righties this year.
Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year.
Mickey Gasper (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .440 against righties this year.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .358 against lefties this year.

How it played out

7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Kyle Schwarber finished with 0 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Monday, August 31, 2026)?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Pfaadt. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Monday, August 31, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Monday, August 31, 2026: Kyle Schwarber (100), Bryce Harper (93), Pete Alonso (91), Jake McCarthy (90), Luis Arraez (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Monday, August 31, 2026?: No — Kyle Schwarber didn't record a total base.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .441 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .504 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .407 against righties this year. Mickey Gasper (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .440 against righties this year. Jeremy Peña (HOU) — righty bat vs LHP, .358 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Cade Povich has been getting squared up by lefties — .485 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), TJ Rumfield (COL), and Mickey Moniak (COL). RHP Brandon Pfaadt has been getting squared up by righties — .458 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Luis Arraez (PHI). RHP Tanner Gordon has been getting squared up by righties — .437 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL). LHP Anthony Kay has been vulnerable to lefties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Yordan Alvarez (HOU).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.