Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?

Yandy Díaz (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, September 3, 2026: Yandy Díaz (100), Dominic Canzone (100), Mookie Betts (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Carter Jensen (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, September 3, 2026?

Yes — Yandy Díaz got 2 total bases.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .458 against righties this year. Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .336 against lefties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .395 against righties this year. Tommy Edman (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year. Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU). RHP Cal Quantrill has been vulnerable to righties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonny DeLuca (TB). RHP Blade Tidwell has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT). RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — .389 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Every hitter on the Thursday, September 3, 2026 slate — ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on our total-bases over/under, against 45% on the season.

Top call Yandy Díaz came through. Dominic Canzone didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 2–5

SFaway

PIThomeTop matchup78 Final · 6–3

TORaway

CLEhomeTop matchup65 Final · 2–6

CWSaway

HOUhomeTop matchup87 Final · 1–2

MILaway

CHChomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–5

BOSaway

BALhomeTop matchup89 Final · 3–7

MIAaway

KChomeTop matchup98 Final · 0–6

TBaway

TEXhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–4

ATHaway

SEAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–3

STLaway

LADhomeTop matchup100

Not starting40 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 202 shownScore

100 with a TBLive count — updates as games play

1
Carter JensenC
KCvsMIA· 3-for-4
9TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #5
2
Adley RutschmanC
BOS@BAL· 2-for-4
8TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #68
3
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsSTL· 4-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #6
T3
Zack Gelof3B
ATH@SEA· 2-for-5
5TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #25
T3
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BALvsBOS· 2-for-3
5TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #78
6
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #11
T6
Roman AnthonyLF
BOS@BAL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #15
T6
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsTB· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #22
T6
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #37
T6
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@CLE· 2-for-5
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #39
T6
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #44
T6
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #46
T6
Luis Robert Jr.CF
BALvsBOS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #55
T6
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsBOS· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #60
T6
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@BAL· 1-for-3
4TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #93
T6
Agustín RamírezDH
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
4TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #118
17
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsSTL· 2-for-3
3TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #8
T17
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsMIA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #19
T17
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@SEA· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #31
T17
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #35
T17
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@CLE· 3-for-5
3TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #47
T17
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@LAD· 2-for-4
3TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #76
23
Yandy DíazDH
TB@TEX· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #1
T23
Henry BolteCF
ATH@SEA· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #9
T23
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@SEA· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #12
T23
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsATH· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #21
T23
Jonah HeimC
ATH@SEA· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #28
T23
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@KC· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #32
T23
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #33
T23
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #40
T23
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsATH· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #41
T23
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #49
T23
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #58
T23
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsTOR· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #59
T23
Cole Young2B
SEAvsATH· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #65
T23
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsCWS· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #81
T23
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #82
T23
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsTB· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #89
T23
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #102
T23
Iván HerreraDH
STL@LAD· 2-for-5
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #106
T23
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #109
T23
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@HOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #111
T23
Kyle IsbelCF
KCvsMIA· 2-for-3
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #119
T23
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #123
T23
Leo BernalC
STL@LAD· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #129
T23
Eli WhiteRF
BOS@BAL· 1-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #136
T23
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@HOU· 2-for-4
2TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #156
T23
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@PIT· 1-for-2
2TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB
49
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #2
T49
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsATH· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.8 TB, #7
T49
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsBOS· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.9 TB, #14
T49
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@KC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #27
T49
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #29
T49
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsSF· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #34
T49
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.7 TB, #38
T49
José FermínLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #53
T49
Drew GilbertCF
SF@PIT· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #54
T49
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsTB· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #61
T49
Nick Gonzales3B
PITvsSF· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #62
T49
Michael Massey2B
KCvsMIA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #63
T49
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@CHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #64
T49
Lazaro MontesRF
SEAvsATH· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #66
T49
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@HOU· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #67
T49
Joshua BáezLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #70
T49
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@CLE· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #71
T49
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsBOS· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #73
T49
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #75
T49
Sean KeysDH
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.6 TB, #79
T49
Alika WilliamsSS
ATH@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #84
T49
Michael Stefanic2B
ATH@SEA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #86
T49
J.P. CrawfordSS
SEAvsATH· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #90
T49
Jake MangumCF
PITvsSF· 1-for-1
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #92
T49
Brian ServenC
ATH@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #96
T49
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsSF· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #98
T49
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #99
T49
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #105
T49
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@HOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #110
T49
Nick FortesC
TB@TEX· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #112
T49
Jo AdellRF
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.5 TB, #114
T49
Ramón Urías3B
STL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #116
T49
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsCWS· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #117
T49
Brock RoddenSS
SEAvsATH· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #120
T49
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@CLE· 1-for-5
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #122
T49
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@LAD· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #125
T49
Joe MackC
MIA@KC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #126
T49
Angel Genao2B
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #131
T49
Christian YelichDH
MIL@CHC· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #132
T49
Max Muncy3B
ATH@SEA· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #133
T49
Thomas SaggeseLF
STL@LAD· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #134
T49
Isiah Kiner-Falefa2B
BOS@BAL· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #141
T49
Logan O'HoppeDH
TEXvsTB· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #143
T49
Carson KellyC
CHCvsMIL· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #145
T49
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@CLE· 1-for-4
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #150
T49
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@CHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB, #151
T49
Elias DíazC
TEXvsTB· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #153
T49
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsTOR· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #158
T49
David Hamilton3B
MIL@CHC· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.3 TB, #159
T49
Pedro PagésC
STL@LAD· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #160
T49
Jake RogersC
CWS@HOU· 1-for-3
1TBFinal
Proj 1.2 TB, #161
T49
Nick Loftin3B
KCvsMIA· 1-for-2
1TBFinal
Proj 1.4 TB

Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Yandy Díaz (TB) is the top total bases matchup on the Thursday, September 3, 2026 board at 100, with Dominic Canzone (SEA) and Mookie Betts (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by total-base upside — the best power and extra-base spots — raw power, the arm and bullpen they face, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top total bases spot: Yandy Díaz

Yandy Díaz (TB) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. The righty is racking up bases at .405 TB/PA against righties this year — and .419 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a total base in about 39% of his trips. And Cal Quantrill has been getting squared up by righties lately — .650 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 12 career PA against Cal Quantrill. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Dominic Canzone (SEA) (100) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .428 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.333).
Mookie Betts (LAD) (100) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a solid bat at .393 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.389), hot bat.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (100) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .432 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.500), hot bat.
Carter Jensen (KC) (98) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: a strong bat at .439 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.383).
Tommy Edman (LAD) (97) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a league-average bat at .348 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.389).
Cal Raleigh (SEA) (95) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .467 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.333).
Teoscar Hernández (LAD) (94) vs LHP Quinn Mathews: a solid bat at .399 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.389).

Arms giving up extra bases today

RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU).
RHP Cal Quantrill has been vulnerable to righties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonny DeLuca (TB).
RHP Blade Tidwell has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — .389 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .458 against righties this year.
Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .336 against lefties this year.
Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .395 against righties this year.
Tommy Edman (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year.
Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year.

How it played out

7 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Yandy Díaz finished with 2 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these total bases matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the total bases board is

The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

His extra-base pop vs this arm.
The park.
Recent contact quality.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.

How to use it

See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?: Yandy Díaz (TB) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Cal Quantrill. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?: The top total bases matchups on Thursday, September 3, 2026: Yandy Díaz (100), Dominic Canzone (100), Mookie Betts (100), Jackson Chourio (100), Carter Jensen (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.
Did the top total bases matchup get a total base on Thursday, September 3, 2026?: Yes — Yandy Díaz got 2 total bases.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Dominic Canzone (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .458 against righties this year. Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .336 against lefties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .395 against righties this year. Tommy Edman (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year. Cal Raleigh (SEA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .329 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .455 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU). RHP Cal Quantrill has been vulnerable to righties — .406 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yandy Díaz (TB), Junior Caminero (TB), and Jonny DeLuca (TB). RHP Blade Tidwell has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT). RHP Kevin Gausman has been vulnerable to righties — .389 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), William Contreras (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).
How is the total bases matchup score calculated?: It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.
What does TB/PA mean?: Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.
What are park factors?: Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.