Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, September 3, 2026

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?

Jeremy Peña (HOU) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Luis Castillo. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, September 3, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, September 3, 2026: Jeremy Peña (100), Jackson Chourio (96), Yordan Alvarez (92), Mickey Gasper (90), Heriberto Hernández (85). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .517 against righties this year. Mickey Gasper (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .460 against righties this year. Roman Anthony (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .323 against righties this year. Coby Mayo (BAL) — righty bat vs LHP, .692 against lefties this year. Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .484 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Luis Castillo has been getting squared up by righties — .435 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Yordan Alvarez (HOU), and Isaac Paredes (HOU). RHP Michael Wacha has been getting squared up by righties — .423 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Heriberto Hernández (MIA), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Javier Sanoja (MIA). RHP Blade Tidwell has been vulnerable to righties — .398 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Spencer Horwitz (PIT), and Oneil Cruz (PIT). LHP Tarik Skubal has been vulnerable to lefties — .396 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Alec Burleson (STL), José Fermín (STL), and Jordan Walker (STL).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Is MatchWiz free?

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.