Best MLB Total Bases Matchups — Wednesday, September 2, 2026
Top total bases spot: Rafael Devers
Rafael Devers (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bubba Chandler. The lefty is racking up bases at .519 TB/PA against righties this year — and .813 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a total base in about 49% of his trips. And Bubba Chandler has been getting squared up by righties lately — .591 total bases per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Bubba Chandler, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Mookie Betts (LAD) (100) vs LHP Brycen Mautz: a solid bat at .400 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (100) vs LHP Reid Detmers: a strong bat at .440 into an arm tough on the same side (.286).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Davis Martin: a solid bat at .401 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (1.143).
- Mickey Gasper (BOS) (100) vs RHP Bryce Miller: an excellent bat at .499 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.593).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (98) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a solid bat at .370 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.680).
- Pete Alonso (BAL) (97) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a strong bat at .456 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.727).
- Riley Greene (DET) (95) vs RHP Dean Kremer: a strong bat at .435 into an arm getting squared up by the same side (.680), due to bounce back.
Arms giving up extra bases today
- RHP Casey Mize has been getting squared up by righties — .444 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Sal Stewart (CIN), Héctor Rodríguez (CIN), and Elly De La Cruz (CIN).
- RHP Justin Hagenman has been getting squared up by righties — .444 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Jonathan Aranda (TB), Liam Hicks (TB), and Chandler Simpson (TB).
- RHP Dean Kremer has been getting squared up by righties — .438 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kevin McGonigle (DET), Riley Greene (DET), and Colt Keith (DET).
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been getting squared up by righties — .436 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Gunnar Henderson (BAL).
Platoon edges to target
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .519 against righties this year.
- Mookie Betts (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .341 against lefties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .525 against lefties this year.
- Mickey Gasper (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .460 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .381 against righties this year.
How it played out
9 of the top 10 total bases matchups landed at least one total base. Top play Rafael Devers finished with 5 total bases. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these total bases matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's total bases per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the total bases board is
The Total Bases board projects how many bases a hitter racks up vs the posted total-bases line. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His extra-base pop vs this arm.
- The park.
- Recent contact quality.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
Total bases grades right at break-even even when we tune it to the hilt — the book prices the marginal leans efficiently. Transparency board.
How to use it
See who the model projects for extra-base damage; no systematic edge to bet.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
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