Best MLB total bases matchups — Thursday, September 17, 2026

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best total bases matchup today (Thursday, September 17, 2026)?

Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Tanner Gordon. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB total bases matchups today (Thursday, September 17, 2026)?

The top total bases matchups on Thursday, September 17, 2026: Fernando Tatis Jr. (100), Konnor Griffin (79), Manny Machado (79), Elly De La Cruz (78), Dustin Harris (78). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by total bases upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Konnor Griffin (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .432 against lefties this year. Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .564 against lefties this year. Tommy Edman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .344 against righties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .428 against righties this year. Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .394 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Kyle Harrison has been getting squared up by lefties — .444 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Konnor Griffin (PIT), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Rafael Flores Jr. (PIT). RHP Tanner Gordon has been vulnerable to righties — .409 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Manny Machado (SD), and Dustin Harris (SD). RHP Nolan McLean has been vulnerable to righties — .401 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Luis Arraez (PHI). RHP Seth Lugo has been vulnerable to righties — .400 total bases per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Isaac Paredes (HOU), and Jeremy Peña (HOU).

How is the total bases matchup score calculated?

It's his bases-per-trip rate against that hand, recent form weighted heaviest, over a two-year baseline. Because this counts extra-base damage, slug matters as much as contact. Then the bullpen, order spot, and the yard. 0–100 across the slate.

What does TB/PA mean?

Total bases is 1 for a single, 2 for a double, 3 for a triple, 4 for a homer — so it rewards power, not just contact. Per plate appearance, around .37 is league average; .50+ is big-time slug. It's the cleanest power matchup we run: both the bat's slug and the arm's slug-against are real.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. Total bases rewards the guys who do damage rather than just make contact, so this board leans slugger where the hits board leans average. It ranks today's spots, not the odds of any particular number.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a total base.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Total bases blends contact and power, so the platoon gap cuts twice: the opposite hand means both more balls in play and more of them driven. A hitter with a big split can swing a full base per game between the two matchups.

What are park factors?

Every extra foot of outfield is a base. Gaps and altitude turn singles into doubles and doubles into triples, while a small park trades the same batted ball for a home run. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a total base in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for total bases props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ total base" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Total bases is one of the steadier props we publish — more ways to clear the line means less variance — and the top of the board beats the slate consistently. Every past date is auditable.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Is MatchWiz free?

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.