Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, July 24, 2026
Top walks spot: Mike Trout
Mike Trout (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Logan Webb. The righty is working counts at .182 BB/PA against righties this year — and .125 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 16% of his trips. And Logan Webb has been tough to walk against righties lately — .000 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Logan Webb, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a park that leans hitter.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Davis Martin: an elite bat at .157 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.111), hot bat.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) (90) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .123 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.033), hitter's park.
- Rafael Devers (SF) (78) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .111 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.033), hitter's park.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (76) vs RHP Roki Sasaki: an elite bat at .176 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.059), due to bounce back.
- Ryan Jeffers (MIN) (74) vs LHP Jacob Lopez: an excellent bat at .139 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.143).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (66) vs RHP Spencer Arrighetti: an elite bat at .158 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.214).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (66) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a solid bat at .094 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.105).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .175 against righties this year.
- Bryce Eldridge (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .135 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .101 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .198 against righties this year.
- Ryan Jeffers (MIN) — righty bat vs LHP, .194 against lefties this year.
Where walks come easiest today
- Oracle Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Mike Trout (LAA) at 100.
- PNC Park is playing as hitter-friendly today (+3% walk park). Top bat there: Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) at 51.
How it played out
8 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Mike Trout finished with 2 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays