Best MLB Walks Matchups — Tuesday, August 11, 2026
Top walks spot: Shohei Ohtani
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Wacha. The lefty is working counts at .170 BB/PA against righties this year — and .185 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 14% of his trips. And Michael Wacha has been prone to walking righties lately — .103 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him hasn't been any better to that side, so there's no relief late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Michael Wacha too — .333 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a solid bat at .097 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (98) vs RHP Andre Pallante: an elite bat at .157 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.103), hot bat.
- Corey Seager (TEX) (94) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .101 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.200).
- Masataka Yoshida (BOS) (92) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a solid bat at .097 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.083).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (90) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: a solid bat at .096 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.250).
- Kyle Karros (COL) (88) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: a solid bat at .093 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.182).
- Adley Rutschman (BOS) (85) vs RHP Dylan Cease: a strong bat at .100 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.083).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .170 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .114 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .163 against righties this year.
- Corey Seager (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .118 against righties this year.
- Masataka Yoshida (BOS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .098 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays