Best MLB Walks Matchups — Monday, August 31, 2026
Top walks spot: Ben Rice
Ben Rice (NYY) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walbert Ureña. The lefty is working counts at .146 BB/PA against righties this year — and .125 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a walk in about 10% of his trips. And Walbert Ureña has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .192 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Walbert Ureña. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (100) vs RHP Peter Lambert: a strong bat at .112 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.114), due to bounce back.
- Mike Trout (LAA) (98) vs RHP Elmer Rodríguez: an excellent bat at .124 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.133).
- Rafael Devers (SF) (95) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a strong bat at .119 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) (91) vs RHP Aaron Nola: a strong bat at .111 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.100), hot bat.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (90) vs RHP Clay Holmes: a strong bat at .114 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.100).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (90) vs RHP Clay Holmes: a strong bat at .105 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.100).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (89) vs RHP Brandon Pfaadt: a strong bat at .118 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.074).
Platoon edges to target
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .146 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year.
- Rafael Devers (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .115 against righties this year.
- Geraldo Perdomo (AZ) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
- Jake Bauers (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .154 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 walks matchups landed at least one walk. Top play Ben Rice finished with 0 walks. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays