Best MLB Walks Matchups — Saturday, September 26, 2026
Top walks spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jack Perkins. The lefty is working counts at .188 BB/PA against righties this year — and .219 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a walk in about 14% of his trips. And Jack Perkins has been tough to walk against righties lately — .029 walks per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .200 in 5 career PA against Jack Perkins, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (92) vs LHP Jose Quintana: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.125).
- James Wood (WSH) (89) vs RHP Jonah Tong: an excellent bat at .129 into an arm fairly stingy with walks against the same side (.071).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (88) vs RHP Griffin Jax: an excellent bat at .136 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.069).
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) (79) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: a strong bat at .114 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) (79) vs RHP Kirby Yates: an excellent bat at .121 into an arm tough to walk against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Teel (CWS) (75) vs LHP Jose Quintana: a strong bat at .111 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.125).
- Lars Nootbaar (AZ) (74) vs RHP Walker Buehler: a strong bat at .107 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.105).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .188 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .196 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Elly De La Cruz (CIN) — lefty bat vs RHP, .118 against righties this year.
- Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
234 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays