Best MLB Walks Matchups — Friday, September 25, 2026
Top walks spot: Mike Trout
Mike Trout (LAA) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Bryce Miller. The righty is working counts at .167 BB/PA against righties this year — and .316 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a walk in about 15% of his trips. And Bryce Miller has been handing out free passes to righties lately — .227 walks per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 8 career PA against Bryce Miller. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (93) vs RHP Yunior Marte: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.191).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (91) vs RHP Freddy Peralta: an excellent bat at .136 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.174).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (83) vs RHP Brandon Young: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.259).
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (79) vs LHP Alec Gamboa: an excellent bat at .121 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Brice Turang (MIL) (77) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an excellent bat at .122 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.097).
- Jake Bauers (MIL) (75) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: an excellent bat at .129 into an arm prone to walking the same side (.097).
- Kyle Tucker (LAD) (74) vs RHP Yunior Marte: an excellent bat at .121 into an arm handing out free passes to the same side (.191).
Platoon edges to target
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .160 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .153 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .148 against righties this year.
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) — righty bat vs LHP, .171 against lefties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .147 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
306 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these walks matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's walks per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the walks board is
The Walks board projects the chance a hitter draws a walk. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His plate discipline.
- The pitcher's control.
- The count leverage in the matchup.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
An over-only market with heavy juice; our overs grade anti-predictive and lose to the vig. No edge — transparency board.
How to use it
Spot the patient-hitter-vs-wild-arm setups; not a bettable edge.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays