MLS Match Board

Every match priced by our xG-driven goal model — the WizLine (win/draw/win probabilities and their fair odds) next to the books' vig-free consensus, plus total-goals and both-teams-to-score reads.

⚙ New model, graded in the open. The soccer model is brand new and hasn't proven anything — nothing here is a pick. A gold Model lean just marks where we and the books disagree the most; we're tracking every match publicly to find out if those disagreements mean anything. Research, not betting advice — 21+.

2026 · all graded matches

Graded walk-forward — ratings use only prior matches, no lookahead. Pre-launch days are reconstructed to season start. Units only ride the matches we froze a pre-kick price for. That's 386 of 387 on ML, 229 of 387 on Over 2.5, 148 of 387 on BTTS.

Wednesday, September 23

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

9:30 PM ET

xG1.9–1.3

SEA

Seattle Sounders FCHOME50%1.9xG-102fair+105mkt+1.7%

Draw24%—xG+317fair+302mkt-0.9%

RSL

Real Salt LakeAWAY26%1.3xG+291fair+279mkt-0.8%

O2.5 64% · mkt 59%BTTS 64%1H O1.5 44%

Apple TV

Saturday, September 26

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

7:30 PM ET

xG1.5–1.3

ATL

Atlanta United FCHOME41%1.5xG+146fair+131mkt-2.5%

Draw28%—xG+263fair+284mkt+1.5%

NYC

New York City FCAWAY32%1.3xG+215fair+225mkt+0.9%

O2.5 53% · mkt 56%BTTS 58%1H O1.5 36%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.8–1.7

MTL

CF MontréalHOME40%1.8xG+147fair+164mkt+2.5%

Draw24%—xG+318fair+317mkt-0.1%

CIN

FC CincinnatiAWAY36%1.7xG+181fair+163mkt-2.4%

O2.5 69%BTTS 70%1H O1.5 47%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.8–1.5

CLT

Charlotte FCHOME44%1.8xG+128fair+135mkt+1.3%

Draw25%—xG+304fair+317mkt+0.8%

CHI

Chicago Fire FCAWAY31%1.5xG+219fair+198mkt-2.1%

O2.5 64%BTTS 66%1H O1.5 44%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG1.6–1.8

RBNY

Red Bull New YorkHOME35%1.6xG+186fair+199mkt+1.5%

Draw24%—xG+309fair+319mkt+0.5%

STL

St. Louis CITY SCAWAY41%1.8xG+146fair+135mkt-1.9%

O2.5 66%BTTS 68%1H O1.5 46%

Apple TV

7:30 PM ET

xG2.7–1.5

PHI

Philadelphia UnionHOME61%2.7xG-157fair-189mkt-4.3%

Draw19%—xG+431fair+453mkt+0.7%

ORL

Orlando City SCAWAY20%1.5xG+398fair+507mkt+3.6%

O2.5 79%BTTS 74%1H O1.5 56%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.4–1.5

ATX

Austin FCHOME35%1.4xG+187fair+144mkt-6.1%

Draw27%—xG+268fair+303mkt+2.4%

San Diego FCAWAY38%1.5xG+163fair+192mkt+3.8%

O2.5 55%BTTS 59%1H O1.5 37%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.7–1.5

DAL

FC DallasHOME41%1.7xG+142fair+162mkt+3.1%

Draw26%—xG+287fair+299mkt+0.8%

LAFC

LAFCAWAY33%1.5xG+204fair+174mkt-3.6%

O2.5 60%BTTS 63%1H O1.5 41%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.9–1.0

HOU

Houston Dynamo FCHOME56%1.9xG-125fair-172mkt-7.8%

Draw25%—xG+306fair+383mkt+3.9%

SKC

Sporting Kansas CityAWAY20%1.0xG+404fair+537mktModel lean+4.1%

O2.5 56%BTTS 56%1H O1.5 38%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.9–1.6

SEA

Seattle Sounders FCHOME44%1.9xG+129fair+122mkt-1.4%

Draw24%—xG+317fair+300mkt-1.0%

MIN

Minnesota United FCAWAY32%1.6xG+210fair+235mkt+2.4%

O2.5 68%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 47%

Apple TV

8:30 PM ET

xG1.8–1.1

NSH

Nashville SCHOME53%1.8xG-111fair-182mkt-11.9%

Draw26%—xG+291fair+414mktModel lean+6.1%

TOR

Toronto FCAWAY22%1.1xG+357fair+525mktModel lean+5.9%

O2.5 54%BTTS 56%1H O1.5 37%

Apple TV

9:30 PM ET

xG1.5–1.8

RSL

Real Salt LakeHOME33%1.5xG+206fair+121mkt-12.6%

Draw25%—xG+302fair+316mkt+0.8%

New England RevolutionAWAY42%1.8xG+136fair+225mktModel lean+11.7%

O2.5 64%BTTS 66%1H O1.5 44%

Apple TV

10:30 PM ET

xG1.6–1.6

LA GalaxyHOME38%1.6xG+163fair+132mkt-5.2%

Draw25%—xG+294fair+301mkt+0.4%

COL

Colorado RapidsAWAY37%1.6xG+173fair+214mktModel lean+4.8%

O2.5 63% · mkt 57%BTTS 65%1H O1.5 43%

Apple TV

10:30 PM ET

xG2.1–1.5

San Jose EarthquakesHOME50%2.1xG-102fair+107mkt+2.1%

Draw23%—xG+339fair+322mkt-1.0%

POR

Portland TimbersAWAY27%1.5xG+273fair+256mkt-1.2%

O2.5 70%BTTS 69%1H O1.5 48%

Apple TV

10:30 PM ET

xG2.5–1.0

VAN

Vancouver WhitecapsHOME70%2.5xG-233fair-301mkt-5.1%

Draw18%—xG+450fair+578mkt+3.4%

D.C. UnitedAWAY12%1.0xG+746fair+896mkt+1.8%

O2.5 67%BTTS 58%1H O1.5 46%

Apple TV

Sunday, September 27

MatchupProbxGWizLineMktWizEdge

7:00 PM ET

xG1.7–1.6

CLB

Columbus CrewHOME39%1.7xG+157fair+177mkt+2.8%

Draw25%—xG+304fair+309mkt+0.3%

MIA

Inter Miami CFAWAY36%1.6xG+176fair+149mkt-3.9%

O2.5 65%BTTS 67%1H O1.5 45%

Apple TV

Prob / WizLine = our model's chance of each result and that as fair, no-vig odds, from a Dixon-Coles goal model, xG-blended. Mkt = the median vig-free consensus across the books we track, as odds. WizEdge = the WizLine minus the market's. A ✓/✗ on a past match is the model's pick graded against the final. Not betting advice — 21+, play responsibly (1-800-GAMBLER).