Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 8, 2026
Top hits spot: Casey Schmitt
Casey Schmitt (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Richard Lovelady. The righty is hitting .357 H/PA against lefties this year — and .400 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Richard Lovelady has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .333 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Richard Lovelady, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.
The rest of the top of the board
- Christian Yelich (MIL) (94) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.429).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .256 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.269), hot bat.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (85) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm tough on the same side (.194).
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) (83) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), due to bounce back.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (82) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259).
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (81) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.143).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (78) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), due to bounce back.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).
- RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Shay Whitcomb (HOU).
Platoon edges to target
- Casey Schmitt (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .296 against lefties this year.
- Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .323 against lefties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Cole Young (SEA), Blake Dunn (CIN), Luis Arraez (SF), Brandon Marsh (PHI), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Casey Schmitt (SF), Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Ty France (SD).
How it played out
6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Casey Schmitt finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.