Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, June 8, 2026)?

Casey Schmitt (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Richard Lovelady. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, June 8, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Monday, June 8, 2026: Casey Schmitt (100), Christian Yelich (94), Yordan Alvarez (87), Fernando Tatis Jr. (85), Travis Bazzana (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, June 8, 2026?

Yes — Casey Schmitt got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Casey Schmitt (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .296 against lefties this year. Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .323 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL). RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Shay Whitcomb (HOU).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Monday, June 8, 2026

Every hitter on the Monday, June 8, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Monday, June 8, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ hit, against 63% on the season.

Top 5

2/540%

season 63%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 67%

Full slate

78/14454%

season 56%

Top call Casey Schmitt came through. Yordan Alvarez didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 6–3

SEAaway

BALhomeTop matchup71 Final · 1–3

BOSaway

TBhomeTop matchup74 Final · 7–5

NYYaway

CLEhomeTop matchup83 Final · 5–2

PHIaway

TORhomeTop matchup78 Final · 5–4

HOUaway

LAAhomeTop matchup87 Final · 2–6

CINaway

SDhomeTop matchup85 Final · 4–3

WSHaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 15–14

MILaway

ATHhomeTop matchup94

Not starting46 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 190 shownScore

99 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@ATH· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T1
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsWSH· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
3
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T3
Shea LangeliersC
ATHvsMIL· 3-for-7
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T3
Nick Kurtz1B
ATHvsMIL· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T3
William ContrerasC
MIL@ATH· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T3
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@BAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #41
T3
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsMIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T3
Trey Mancini1B
LAAvsHOU· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
10
Casey SchmittLF
SFvsWSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #1
T10
Christian YelichDH
MIL@ATH· 2-for-7
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T10
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T10
Luis Arraez2B
SFvsWSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T10
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T10
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsWSH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T10
Ben RiceDH
NYY@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #43
T10
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@BAL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #45
T10
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #47
T10
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #50
T10
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #52
T10
Taylor WardDH
BALvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T10
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T10
Jase BowenRF
SDvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T10
Cody BellingerLF
NYY@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #87
T10
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsMIL· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #98
T10
Blaze Alexander3B
BALvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #108
T10
Matt Chapman3B
SFvsWSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #121
T10
Matt McLain2B
CIN@SD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #129
T10
Freddy FerminC
SDvsCIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
T10
Cam SmithRF
HOU@LAA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #134
T10
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #137
T10
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsNYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #141
T10
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T10
Christian Walker1B
HOU@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T10
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@ATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
36
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T36
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T36
Cole Young2B
SEA@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T36
Blake DunnCF
CIN@SD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T36
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T36
Ty France1B
SDvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T36
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsHOU· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T36
JJ BledayLF
CIN@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T36
James WoodRF
WSH@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T36
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T36
Nick Madrigal3B
LAAvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T36
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T36
Brice Turang2B
MIL@ATH· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T36
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #46
T36
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #48
T36
Jhonny PeredaC
SEA@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #51
T36
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T36
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsMIL· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #62
T36
Keibert RuizC
WSH@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #65
T36
Isaac Paredes3B
HOU@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T36
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T36
Mickey GasperC
BOS@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T36
Gavin Sheets1B
SDvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T36
Blake PerkinsCF
MIL@ATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #88
T36
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #90
T36
Noelvi MarteRF
CIN@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #91
T36
Brice MatthewsCF
HOU@LAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #93
T36
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #95
T36
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #97
T36
Adolis GarcíaRF
PHI@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #100
T36
Collin PriceC
HOU@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #101
T36
Edwin Arroyo2B
CIN@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #102
T36
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #103
T36
Samad TaylorLF
SDvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #105
T36
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #106
T36
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #107
T36
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsNYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #109
T36
Yohendrick PiñangoLF
TORvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #118
T36
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #123
T36
Tyler StephensonC
CIN@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #124
T36
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #126
T36
Nick FortesC
TBvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #127
T36
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@TOR· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #130
T36
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #135
T36
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #136
T36
Logan O'HoppeC
LAAvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #138
T36
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsMIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #142
T36
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T36
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T36
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CIN@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T36
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsMIL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T36
Colby ThomasRF
ATHvsMIL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T36
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T36
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOU@LAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T36
Austin SlaterRF
TBvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T36
Daylen LileLF
WSH@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T36
Paul Goldschmidt1B
NYY@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T36
Max Muncy3B
ATHvsMIL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T36
Kyle Manzardo1B
CLEvsNYY· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T36
Marcelo Mayer2B
BOS@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T36
Myles StrawCF
TORvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T36
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T36
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T36
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, June 8, 2026

Casey Schmitt (SF) is the top hits matchup on the Monday, June 8, 2026 board at 100, with Christian Yelich (MIL) and Yordan Alvarez (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Casey Schmitt

Casey Schmitt (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Richard Lovelady. The righty is hitting .357 H/PA against lefties this year — and .400 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Richard Lovelady has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .333 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 2 career PA against Richard Lovelady, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Christian Yelich (MIL) (94) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: an excellent bat at .272 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.429).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: a strong bat at .256 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.269), hot bat.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (85) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm tough on the same side (.194).
Travis Bazzana (CLE) (83) vs RHP Will Warren: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), due to bounce back.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) (82) vs LHP Jeffrey Springs: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.259).
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (81) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.143).
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (78) vs LHP Patrick Corbin: a strong bat at .253 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), due to bounce back.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL).
RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Shay Whitcomb (HOU).

Platoon edges to target

Casey Schmitt (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year.
Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .296 against lefties this year.
Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year.
Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .323 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Cole Young (SEA), Blake Dunn (CIN), Luis Arraez (SF), Brandon Marsh (PHI), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Casey Schmitt (SF), Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Ty France (SD).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Casey Schmitt finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Monday, June 8, 2026)?: Casey Schmitt (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Richard Lovelady. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Monday, June 8, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Monday, June 8, 2026: Casey Schmitt (100), Christian Yelich (94), Yordan Alvarez (87), Fernando Tatis Jr. (85), Travis Bazzana (83). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Monday, June 8, 2026?: Yes — Casey Schmitt got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Casey Schmitt (SF) — righty bat vs LHP, .357 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .250 against righties this year. Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) — righty bat vs LHP, .296 against lefties this year. Travis Bazzana (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year. Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .323 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: LHP Jeffrey Springs has been vulnerable to lefties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Christian Yelich (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Andrew Vaughn (MIL). RHP Grayson Rodriguez has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Shay Whitcomb (HOU).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Cole Young (SEA), Blake Dunn (CIN), Luis Arraez (SF), Brandon Marsh (PHI), and Jung Hoo Lee (SF). Cold but due to bounce back: Casey Schmitt (SF), Travis Bazzana (CLE), Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Ty France (SD).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.