Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, July 26, 2026
Top hits spot: Nick Gonzales
Nick Gonzales (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jameson Taillon. The righty is hitting .299 H/PA against righties this year — and .348 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Jameson Taillon has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .429 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .167 in 12 career PA against Jameson Taillon, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Jeremy Peña (HOU) (97) vs RHP Erick Fedde: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.235), hot bat.
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) (90) vs LHP Kyle Freeland: a strong bat at .259 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.310).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (88) vs RHP Erick Fedde: an elite bat at .302 into an arm tough on the same side (.154).
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (88) vs RHP Shane Baz: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
- Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (88) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: an excellent bat at .273 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), hot bat.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) (85) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: a strong bat at .268 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.417).
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (84) vs RHP Kevin Gausman: a strong bat at .265 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been getting tattooed by lefties — .290 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Paul Goldschmidt (NYY), Amed Rosario (NYY), and Ben Rice (NYY).
- LHP Kyle Freeland has been vulnerable to lefties — .279 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jackson Chourio (MIL), Christian Yelich (MIL), and William Contreras (MIL).
Platoon edges to target
- Jackson Chourio (MIL) — righty bat vs LHP, .279 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .284 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
- Paul Goldschmidt (NYY) — righty bat vs LHP, .295 against lefties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .231 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Nick Gonzales (PIT), Jeremy Peña (HOU), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Freddie Freeman (LAD), and Joc Pederson (TEX). Cold but due to bounce back: Curtis Mead (WSH), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Byron Buxton (MIN), Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), and Amed Rosario (NYY).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.