Best MLB Hits Matchups — Monday, July 27, 2026
Top hits spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Walbert Ureña. The righty is hitting .287 H/PA against righties this year — and .464 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 30% of his trips. And Walbert Ureña has been tough on righties lately — .182 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's just .000 in 3 career PA against Walbert Ureña, but that's a tiny sample and the matchup says regression. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (97) vs RHP Walbert Ureña: an excellent bat at .289 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.308), due to bounce back.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (92) vs RHP Chase Burns: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm tough on the same side (.154), hot bat.
- Wyatt Langford (TEX) (88) vs RHP George Kirby: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm tough on the same side (.154).
- CJ Abrams (WSH) (85) vs RHP Max Scherzer: an excellent bat at .295 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) (84) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: a strong bat at .251 into an arm tough on the same side (.208).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (83) vs RHP George Kirby: a strong bat at .255 into an arm tough on the same side (.125), hot bat.
- Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (82) vs RHP Jack Perkins: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
RHP Max Scherzer has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: CJ Abrams (WSH), Andrés Chaparro (WSH), and James Wood (WSH).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .280 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year.
- CJ Abrams (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .263 against righties this year.
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .224 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Steven Kwan (CLE), CJ Abrams (WSH), Joc Pederson (TEX), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX). Cold but due to bounce back: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Willson Contreras (BOS), Gleyber Torres (DET), and JJ Wetherholt (STL).
Lineup watch
216 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.