Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, July 28, 2026
Top hits spot: Jake Mangum
Jake Mangum (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Pfaadt. The lefty is hitting .277 H/PA against righties this year — and .227 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Brandon Pfaadt has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .360 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brandon Pfaadt too — 1.000 across 2 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (94) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .245 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), due to bounce back.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (87) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .267 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Ernie Clement (TOR) (86) vs RHP Cade Cavalli: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.238).
- Ty France (SD) (86) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
- Alec Burleson (STL) (83) vs RHP Colin Rea: an elite bat at .306 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
- Steven Kwan (CLE) (83) vs RHP Chase Burns: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm tough on the same side (.154), hot bat.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (81) vs RHP Griffin Jax: a strong bat at .264 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.280), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Brandon Pfaadt has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake Mangum (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Bryan Reynolds (PIT).
- RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Ty France (SD), and Jake Cronenworth (SD).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake Mangum (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .293 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .232 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .225 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .252 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jake Mangum (PIT), Steven Kwan (CLE), Steven Kwan (CLE), Joc Pederson (TEX), Drake Baldwin (ATL), and Jeremy Peña (HOU). Cold but due to bounce back: Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD), Nathan Lukes (TOR), Jacob Wilson (ATH), Jordan Walker (STL), and Byron Buxton (MIN).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How it played out
0 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.