Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, July 29, 2026
Top hits spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Grayson Rodriguez. The righty is hitting .293 H/PA against righties this year — and .485 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Grayson Rodriguez has been tough on righties lately — .200 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Grayson Rodriguez too — .333 across 6 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (98) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (97) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) (96) vs LHP Eduardo Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.276), hot bat.
- Ty France (SD) (91) vs RHP Gabriel Hughes: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Tyler Soderstrom (ATH) (86) vs LHP Patrick Sandoval: a solid bat at .235 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.667).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (84) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .257 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (83) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm tough on the same side (.182), hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Patrick Sandoval has been getting tattooed by lefties — .315 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Jacob Wilson (ATH), and Jeff McNeil (ATH).
- RHP Casey Legumina has been vulnerable to righties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Wyatt Langford (TEX), Joc Pederson (TEX), and Ezequiel Duran (TEX).
- RHP Joe Ryan has been vulnerable to righties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Vinnie Pasquantino (KC).
- RHP Brady Singer has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Steven Kwan (CLE), José Ramírez (CLE), and Chase DeLauter (CLE).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .276 against righties this year.
- Nick Gonzales (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .258 against lefties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .284 against righties this year.
- Steven Kwan (CLE) — lefty bat vs RHP, .229 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Nick Gonzales (PIT), Ty France (SD), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Luis Arraez (SF), and Drake Baldwin (ATL). Cold but due to bounce back: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Carter Jensen (KC), Yohendrick Piñango (TOR), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jordan Walker (STL).
Lineup watch
198 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.