Best MLB Hits Matchups — Thursday, July 30, 2026
Top hits spot: Nick Gonzales
Nick Gonzales (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Rhett Lowder. The righty is hitting .302 H/PA against righties this year — and .333 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 28% of his trips. And Rhett Lowder has been tough on righties lately — .200 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .250 in 4 career PA against Rhett Lowder. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (93) vs RHP Bryan Woo: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.281), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (93) vs RHP Jake Irvin: an excellent bat at .286 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Jacob Wilson (ATH) (85) vs RHP Sonny Gray: a strong bat at .260 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.412).
- Fernando Tatis Jr. (SD) (83) vs RHP the starter: a strong bat at .262 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (82) vs RHP Rhett Lowder: a strong bat at .266 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.385).
- Luis Arraez (SF) (81) vs LHP JP Sears: a strong bat at .256 into an arm tough on the same side (.077), hot bat.
- Ty France (SD) (80) vs RHP the starter: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
RHP Sonny Gray has been vulnerable to righties — .262 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jacob Wilson (ATH), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH).
Platoon edges to target
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .284 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .236 against righties this year.
- Alec Burleson (STL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .290 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .214 against righties this year.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Nick Gonzales (PIT), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Luis Arraez (SF), Ty France (SD), and Miguel Vargas (CWS). Cold but due to bounce back: Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL), Nick Kurtz (ATH), Bo Bichette (NYM), Colson Montgomery (CWS), and Trevor Larnach (MIN).
Lineup watch
180 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.