Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026
Top hits spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Nathan Eovaldi. The righty is hitting .293 H/PA against righties this year — and .485 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Nathan Eovaldi has been tough on righties lately — .167 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .294 in 17 career PA against Nathan Eovaldi. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (100) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.462).
- Carter Jensen (KC) (88) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .225 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hitter's park.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (83) vs RHP Bradgley Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .276 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250).
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) (82) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .269 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286).
- Brice Turang (MIL) (81) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.318).
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (80) vs RHP Michael Wacha: a strong bat at .254 into an arm tough on the same side (.172), hitter's park.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (80) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.219).
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- LHP Mitch Bratt has been vulnerable to lefties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Steven Kwan (CLE), and José Ramírez (CLE).
- RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Francisco Lindor (NYM), A.J. Ewing (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
- RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jake Bauers (MIL), and Jackson Chourio (MIL).
- RHP Tomoyuki Sugano has been giving up plenty to righties — .259 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Carter Jensen (KC), John Rave (KC), and Michael Massey (KC).
Platoon edges to target
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .294 against righties this year.
- Nathan Lukes (TOR) — lefty bat vs RHP, .294 against righties this year.
- Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Carter Jensen (KC) at 88.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Cole Young (SEA), Jackson Merrill (SD), Jake Mangum (PIT), Brandon Lowe (PIT), and Freddie Freeman (LAD). Cold but due to bounce back: CJ Abrams (WSH), Junior Caminero (TB), Hunter Goodman (COL), Nick Kurtz (ATH), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.