Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Ranger Suarez. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Friday, July 31, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Brice Turang (100), Jeremy Peña (100), Chase DeLauter (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, July 31, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Mike Trout (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .226 against lefties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .196 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .297 against righties this year. Miguel Rojas (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .284 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL). LHP Mitch Bratt has been vulnerable to lefties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Angel Martínez (CLE), and José Ramírez (CLE). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Francisco Lindor (NYM), A.J. Ewing (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM). RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, July 31, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, July 31, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 4/5 (80%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

4/580%

season 67%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 68%

Full slate

156/27058%

season 58%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Chase DeLauter didn't.

Final · 2–0

NYYaway

CHChomeTop matchup74 Final · 7–8

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup73 Final · 4–6

PHIaway

BALhomeTop matchup77 Final · 1–3

STLaway

TORhomeTop matchup86 Final · 4–1

AZaway

CLEhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–1

CWSaway

TBhomeTop matchup69 Final · 5–2

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup77 Final · 2–6

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup79 Final · 2–11

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 1–3

KCaway

COLhomeTop matchup94 Final · 6–2

MILaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 13–1

DETaway

ATHhomeTop matchup78 Final · 0–7

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup93 Final · 9–4

BOSaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–3

MINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup84

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 335 shownScore

160 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsTEX· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
2
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsTEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #3
T2
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T2
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T2
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@BAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T2
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@CIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T2
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T2
Javier BáezSS
DET@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T2
Max ClarkCF
DET@ATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #166
T2
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@ATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #178
T2
Brandon ValenzuelaC
TORvsSTL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T2
Luis CampusanoC
SDvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T2
Noelvi MarteRF
CINvsPIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T2
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsWSH· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
15
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsBOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T15
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T15
Dillon DinglerC
DET@ATH· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T15
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T15
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T15
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T15
Jake MangumCF
PIT@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T15
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T15
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T15
Salvador PerezDH
KC@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T15
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T15
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T15
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T15
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T15
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T15
Ty France1B
SDvsSF· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T15
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CINvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T15
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T15
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T15
Garrett MitchellCF
MIL@LAA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T15
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T15
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T15
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T15
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@LAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T15
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T15
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@CIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T15
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T15
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsAZ· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T15
Joe MackC
MIA@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T15
Evan CarterCF
TEX@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T15
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsSTL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T15
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@TB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T15
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T15
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T15
Jase BowenRF
SDvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T15
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T15
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@SEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #259
T15
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #264
T15
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
54
Brice Turang2B
MIL@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T54
Carter JensenC
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T54
Luis Arraez2B
SF@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T54
Andy PagesCF
LADvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T54
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T54
Cole Young2B
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T54
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T54
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T54
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T54
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T54
Lane ThomasCF
KC@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T54
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T54
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T54
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T54
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T54
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T54
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T54
Alec Burleson1B
STL@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T54
John RaveRF
KC@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T54
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@HOU· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T54
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T54
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T54
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T54
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T54
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SDvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T54
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T54
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T54
Christian YelichDH
MIL@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T54
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T54
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T54
George SpringerDH
TORvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #72
T54
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T54
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #75
T54
Elly De La CruzSS
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T54
Kyle TuckerRF
LADvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T54
Luis RengifoLF
SDvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #81
T54
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T54
Jackson Holliday2B
BALvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T54
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T54
Brady House3B
WSH@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T54
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T54
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T54
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T54
James WoodRF
WSH@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T54
William ContrerasC
MIL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T54
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T54
Ben RiceDH
NYY@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T54
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T54
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T54
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T54
Daylen LileLF
WSH@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T54
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T54
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T54
Jared Young1B
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T54
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T54
Enrique Hernández1B
LADvsBOS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T54
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T54
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T54
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T54
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T54
Josh BellDH
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T54
JJ BledayLF
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T54
Ryan O'HearnRF
PIT@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T54
Dane MyersCF
CINvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T54
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T54
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T54
Manny Machado3B
SDvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T54
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T54
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@LAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T54
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T54
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@LAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T54
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #177
T54
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T54
Ben MalgeriRF
DET@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #181
T54
Endy RodríguezC
PIT@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T54
Masyn WinnSS
STL@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T54
Eliezer AlfonzoC
LADvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T54
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T54
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T54
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T54
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T54
José TenaDH
WSH@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T54
Ian HappLF
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T54
Spencer JonesCF
NYY@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T54
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T54
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T54
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T54
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T54
Hunter FeducciaC
TBvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T54
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #240
T54
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T54
Henry DavisC
PIT@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T54
Freddy FerminC
SDvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T54
Brenton DoyleCF
COLvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T54
Alan RodenRF
MIN@SEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #249
T54
Jake Burger1B
TEX@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T54
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T54
Matt McLain2B
CINvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #254
T54
José CaballeroSS
NYY@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #255
T54
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #261
T54
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T54
Christian Koss3B
SF@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T54
Drew RomoC
CWS@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #270
T54
Eduardo ValenciaC
DET@ATH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T54
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BALvsPHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T54
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
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Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, July 31, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Friday, July 31, 2026 board at 100, with Brice Turang (MIL) and Jeremy Peña (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Ranger Suarez. The lefty is hitting .243 H/PA against lefties this year — and .188 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 24% of his trips. And Ranger Suarez has been tough on lefties lately — .200 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Ranger Suarez too — .333 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Brice Turang (MIL) (100) vs RHP Ryan Johnson: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.318).
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Nathan Eovaldi: an elite bat at .309 into an arm tough on the same side (.167), hot bat.
Chase DeLauter (CLE) (100) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.462).
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (99) vs RHP Edgardo Henriquez: a strong bat at .270 into an arm giving up plenty to the same side (.250), hot bat.
Mike Trout (LAA) (96) vs LHP Shane Drohan: a strong bat at .262 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Carter Jensen (KC) (94) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: a league-average bat at .220 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.304), hitter's park.
Luis Arraez (SF) (93) vs RHP Bradgley Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.267).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL).
LHP Mitch Bratt has been vulnerable to lefties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Angel Martínez (CLE), and José Ramírez (CLE).
RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Francisco Lindor (NYM), A.J. Ewing (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM).
RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).

Platoon edges to target

Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
Mike Trout (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .226 against lefties this year.
Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .196 against righties this year.
Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .297 against righties this year.
Miguel Rojas (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .284 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Carter Jensen (KC) at 94.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Cole Young (SEA), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Jackson Merrill (SD). Cold but due to bounce back: Miguel Rojas (LAD), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Dylan Beavers (BAL), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Pedro Ramírez (CHC).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Ranger Suarez. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, July 31, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Friday, July 31, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Brice Turang (100), Jeremy Peña (100), Chase DeLauter (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, July 31, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Brice Turang (MIL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Mike Trout (LAA) — righty bat vs LHP, .226 against lefties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .196 against righties this year. Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .297 against righties this year. Miguel Rojas (LAD) — righty bat vs LHP, .284 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Carter Jensen (KC) at 94.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Andrew Painter has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Dylan Beavers (BAL), Jackson Holliday (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL). LHP Mitch Bratt has been vulnerable to lefties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chase DeLauter (CLE), Angel Martínez (CLE), and José Ramírez (CLE). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Francisco Lindor (NYM), A.J. Ewing (NYM), and Bo Bichette (NYM). RHP Ryan Johnson has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brice Turang (MIL), Jackson Chourio (MIL), and Christian Yelich (MIL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Cole Young (SEA), Luis García Jr. (WSH), and Jackson Merrill (SD). Cold but due to bounce back: Miguel Rojas (LAD), Trevor Larnach (MIN), Dylan Beavers (BAL), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Pedro Ramírez (CHC).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays