Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 1, 2026)?

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 1, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 1, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Jeremy Peña (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Drake Baldwin (100), Carter Jensen (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 1, 2026?

Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year. TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .245 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Coby Mayo (BAL), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL). RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN). LHP Connor Prielipp has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cole Young (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, August 1, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, August 1, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 66% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 66%

Top 10

10/10100%

season 67%

Full slate

172/27064%

season 58%

Top call Shohei Ohtani came through. Fernando Tatis Jr. didn't.

Final · 1–5

STLaway

TORhomeTop matchup71 Final · 0–1

CWSaway

TBhomeTop matchup64 Final · 6–2

MIAaway

NYMhomeTop matchup84 Final · 3–4

MINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup79 Final · 4–1

PITaway

CINhomeTop matchup64 Final · 5–0

PHIaway

BALhomeTop matchup81 Final · 4–5

TEXaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 12–8

AZaway

CLEhomeTop matchup74 Final · 3–8

WSHaway

ATLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

NYYaway

CHChomeTop matchup58 Final · 6–12

KCaway

COLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–6

SFaway

SDhomeTop matchup87 Final · 3–2

BOSaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–1

MILaway

LAAhomeTop matchup83 Final · 8–6

DETaway

ATHhomeTop matchup90

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 335 shownScore

176 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Hunter GoodmanC
COLvsKC· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T1
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@CLE· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #187
3
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsKC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T3
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #9
T3
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@ATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T3
Ty France1B
SDvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T3
Tommy White3B
ATHvsDET· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T3
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsAZ· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T3
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #169
T3
Ali SánchezC
NYY@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T3
James McCannC
AZ@CLE· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T3
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsDET· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #254
13
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #2
T13
Jake McCarthyCF
COLvsKC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T13
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T13
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsMIL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T13
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T13
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@BAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #21
T13
Cole Young2B
SEAvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #23
T13
Kyle Karros3B
COLvsKC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T13
Nick Loftin3B
KC@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T13
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsDET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T13
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsSTL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T13
Colt Keith3B
DET@ATH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T13
John RaveRF
KC@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T13
Alec Burleson1B
STL@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T13
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T13
Tyler TolbertSS
KC@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T13
Jake MangumCF
PIT@CIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T13
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T13
George SpringerDH
TORvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T13
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T13
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@TOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T13
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@SD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T13
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsDET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T13
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T13
Rafael Devers1B
SF@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T13
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsSF· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T13
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEAvsMIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T13
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T13
Brandon MarshLF
PHI@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T13
Willi Castro2B
COLvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T13
Liam HicksC
MIA@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T13
Brooks Lee3B
MIN@SEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T13
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T13
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T13
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T13
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T13
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #152
T13
Max ClarkCF
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #174
T13
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #176
T13
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #185
T13
Spencer Torkelson1B
DET@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #186
T13
Drew GilbertCF
SF@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T13
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@HOU· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T13
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@CLE· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T13
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T13
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsAZ· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T13
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T13
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T13
Spencer JonesCF
NYY@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T13
Freddy FerminC
SDvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T13
Osleivis BasabeSS
SF@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #248
T13
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsSF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T13
Edgar QueroC
CWS@TB· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T13
Daniel SusacC
SF@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T13
Eduardo ValenciaC
DET@ATH· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
68
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T68
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.3 H, #4
T68
Carter JensenC
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T68
Lane ThomasCF
KC@COL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T68
Salvador PerezDH
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T68
Otto LopezSS
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #13
T68
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T68
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SF@SD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T68
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #18
T68
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T68
Dillon DinglerC
DET@ATH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T68
Mickey MoniakLF
COLvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T68
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #27
T68
Andy PagesCF
LADvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T68
Michael Massey2B
KC@COL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T68
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #36
T68
Luis Urías2B
TORvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T68
Ryan JeffersC
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T68
Brice Turang2B
MIL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T68
Trevor LarnachLF
MIN@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T68
Jacob WilsonSS
ATHvsDET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T68
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T68
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T68
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T68
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T68
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T68
Tyler O'NeillRF
BALvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T68
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #78
T68
A.J. EwingCF
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T68
Nathaniel LoweDH
CINvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #85
T68
Josh Naylor1B
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T68
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #90
T68
Jonny DeLucaRF
TBvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T68
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #93
T68
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@BAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #94
T68
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T68
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #101
T68
Brady House3B
WSH@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #103
T68
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T68
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T68
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T68
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T68
Iván HerreraDH
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T68
Max Muncy3B
LADvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T68
Gunnar HendersonSS
BALvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T68
Royce Lewis1B
MIN@SEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T68
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T68
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T68
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T68
Ketel Marte2B
AZ@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T68
Julio RodríguezCF
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T68
Luke Keaschall2B
MIN@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #130
T68
Daulton VarshoCF
TORvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T68
William ContrerasC
MIL@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T68
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T68
Carson KellyC
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T68
Nick FortesC
TBvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T68
Lars NootbaarLF
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #142
T68
Heliot RamosLF
SF@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T68
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T68
Jasson DomínguezRF
NYY@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T68
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T68
Ryan KreidlerSS
MIN@SEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #150
T68
Jorge SolerDH
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T68
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T68
Amed Rosario3B
NYY@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #159
T68
Masyn WinnSS
STL@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T68
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T68
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T68
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PIT@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #164
T68
Colt EmersonSS
SEAvsMIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T68
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #168
T68
Bryan De La CruzRF
PHI@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #172
T68
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T68
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #177
T68
Brenton DoyleCF
COLvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T68
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #184
T68
Taylor TrammellCF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T68
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T68
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@BAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T68
Tyler FreemanRF
COLvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T68
Marcell OzunaDH
PIT@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T68
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T68
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T68
Luis García Jr.1B
WSH@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T68
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T68
Kyle Stowers1B
MIA@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T68
Tyrone TaylorLF
NYMvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T68
Myles StrawRF
TORvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T68
Nathan ChurchCF
STL@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #229
T68
Zach McKinstry2B
DET@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T68
Elias DíazC
TEX@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T68
Austin HedgesC
CLEvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T68
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T68
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #242
T68
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T68
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T68
Jonathan OrnelasSS
ATHvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #251
T68
Alejandro OsunaLF
TEX@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #253
T68
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T68
José CaballeroSS
NYY@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T68
Henry DavisC
PIT@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T68
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #260
T68
Cooper PrattSS
MIL@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #267
T68
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T68
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #270
T68
Dylan BeaversRF
BALvsPHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T68
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsDET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T68
Donovan Walton2B
ATHvsDET· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, August 1, 2026 board at 100, with Jeremy Peña (HOU) and Jake McCarthy (COL) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Shohei Ohtani

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. The lefty is hitting .252 H/PA against lefties this year — and .263 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Payton Tolle has been getting tattooed by lefties lately — .400 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Payton Tolle. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Jeremy Peña (HOU) (100) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: an elite bat at .317 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), hot bat.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (100) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a solid bat at .242 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) (100) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: an excellent bat at .288 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), due to bounce back.
Carter Jensen (KC) (99) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .222 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348), hitter's park.
Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (95) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm tough on the same side (.200), hot bat.
TJ Rumfield (COL) (95) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .268 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hitter's park.
Lane Thomas (KC) (94) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .210 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.444), hitter's park.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Coby Mayo (BAL), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL).
RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN).
LHP Connor Prielipp has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cole Young (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).

Platoon edges to target

Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year.
Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year.
Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year.
TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year.
Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .245 against righties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Cole Young (SEA), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), and Jake Mangum (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Jake McCarthy (COL), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Nick Loftin (KC), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH).

How it played out

10 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Shohei Ohtani finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 1, 2026)?: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Payton Tolle. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 1, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 1, 2026: Shohei Ohtani (100), Jeremy Peña (100), Jake McCarthy (100), Drake Baldwin (100), Carter Jensen (99). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 1, 2026?: Yes — Shohei Ohtani got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .249 against righties this year. Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .254 against righties this year. Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .197 against righties this year. TJ Rumfield (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .271 against righties this year. Kevin McGonigle (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .245 against righties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Michael Harris II (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL). LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Coby Mayo (BAL), Christian Encarnacion-Strand (BAL), and Pete Alonso (BAL). RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Nathaniel Lowe (CIN), and Sal Stewart (CIN). LHP Connor Prielipp has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cole Young (SEA), Dominic Canzone (SEA), and Josh Naylor (SEA).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Cole Young (SEA), Ryan Jeffers (MIN), and Jake Mangum (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Jake McCarthy (COL), Drake Baldwin (ATL), Otto Lopez (MIA), Nick Loftin (KC), and Tyler Soderstrom (ATH).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — the last two weeks, the current season, and a two-year baseline, with recent form counting most. Then it folds in the opposing bullpen, his expected plate appearances from the batting order, and park and weather. Scores are set 0–100 across the day's slate, so the best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the pitcher, and the park all line up. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It's a ranking of how today's spots stack up against each other — not the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most hitters do better against the opposite hand — a lefty bat vs. a righty arm, and vice versa. That gap is the platoon split. The score leans hard on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, which is why the same guy can rank very differently day to day.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral. Dimensions, altitude, and weather make some easier to hit in than others. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — same hitter, higher grade in a hitter's park than a pitcher's.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against real results, and the top of the board lands a hit a lot more often than the slate as a whole. Weights get re-tuned weekly against actual outcomes on a held-out split, and since results sit next to projections, you can audit the hit rate yourself on any past date.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays