Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026
Top hits spot: Jeremy Peña
Jeremy Peña (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Jacob deGrom. The righty is hitting .293 H/PA against righties this year — and .472 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a hit in about 31% of his trips. And Jacob deGrom has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .364 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Jacob deGrom too — .308 across 13 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (94) vs RHP Miles Mikolas: an excellent bat at .292 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.364), due to bounce back.
- Luis Arraez (SF) (86) vs RHP Walker Buehler: an excellent bat at .282 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
- Chase DeLauter (CLE) (85) vs LHP Kohl Drake: an excellent bat at .293 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) (84) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a solid bat at .250 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hitter's park, due to bounce back.
- Cole Young (SEA) (81) vs LHP Connor Prielipp: a strong bat at .252 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hot bat.
- Carter Jensen (KC) (81) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a league-average bat at .220 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.348), hitter's park.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (79) vs RHP Luinder Avila: a strong bat at .262 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.217), hitter's park.
Pitchers getting tattooed today
- RHP Miles Mikolas has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Ronald Acuña Jr. (ATL), and Matt Olson (ATL).
- LHP Cristopher Sánchez has been vulnerable to lefties — .268 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Alonso (BAL), Taylor Ward (BAL), and Dylan Beavers (BAL).
- RHP Braxton Ashcraft has been giving up plenty to righties — .258 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Tyler Stephenson (CIN), and Nathaniel Lowe (CIN).
- LHP Connor Prielipp has been giving up plenty to lefties — .257 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Cole Young (SEA), Josh Naylor (SEA), and Dominic Canzone (SEA).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .257 against righties this year.
- Luis Arraez (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .297 against righties this year.
- Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.
- Carter Jensen (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .196 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year.
Best parks to hit in today
Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Jake McCarthy (COL) at 84.
Hot bats and bounce-back spots
Swinging hot bats: Jeremy Peña (HOU), Cole Young (SEA), Jake Mangum (PIT), Freddie Freeman (LAD), Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), and Ryan Jeffers (MIN). Cold but due to bounce back: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Jake McCarthy (COL), Michael Massey (KC), Otto Lopez (MIA), and Hao-Yu Lee (DET).
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these hits matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.