Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, August 12, 2026)?

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jackson Kent. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, August 12, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Wednesday, August 12, 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Brett Bateman (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Luis Arraez (100), Bryce Harper (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, August 12, 2026?

Yes — Pete Crow-Armstrong got 1 hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year. Brady House (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Kyle Schwarber (PHI). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Jake Mangum (PIT), and Nick Gonzales (PIT). RHP Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), and Nolan Arenado (AZ).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Every hitter on the Wednesday, August 12, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 67%

Top 10

8/1080%

season 68%

Full slate

169/27063%

season 58%

Top call Pete Crow-Armstrong came through. Jake McCarthy didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 5–7

BALaway

MINhomeTop matchup64 Final · 1–7

PHIaway

STLhomeTop matchup100 Final · 8–4

TBaway

ATHhomeTop matchup87 Final · 6–4

COLaway

AZhomeTop matchup97 Final · 2–1

HOUaway

SFhomeTop matchup88 Final · 3–4

MILaway

SDhomeTop matchup74 Final · 6–4

CLEaway

DEThomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–8

PITaway

MIAhomeTop matchup89 Final · 12–6

CHCaway

WSHhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–10

SEAaway

NYYhomeTop matchup80 Final · 4–6

BOSaway

TORhomeTop matchup100 Final · 3–6

NYMaway

ATLhomeTop matchup84 Final · 0–5

CINaway

CWShomeTop matchup78 Final · 2–4

KCaway

LADhomeTop matchup100 Final · 2–5

TEXaway

LAAhomeTop matchup89

Not starting58 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 328 shownScore

175 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsNYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T1
Alex Bregman3B
CHC@WSH· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T1
Liam HicksC
TB@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T1
Sam AntonacciLF
CWSvsCIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T1
Angel MartínezLF
CLE@DET· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #79
T1
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@LAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T1
Trent GrishamCF
NYYvsSEA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T1
Jonny DeLucaRF
TB@ATH· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T1
Josh BellDH
MINvsBAL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T1
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsNYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T1
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsTEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T1
Alan RodenRF
MINvsBAL· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
13
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T13
Gabriel MorenoC
AZvsCOL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T13
Alec Burleson1B
STLvsPHI· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T13
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHC@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T13
Yandy DíazDH
TB@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T13
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@LAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T13
Sal Stewart1B
CIN@CWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T13
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T13
Chase DeLauterRF
CLE@DET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T13
Junior Caminero3B
TB@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T13
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZvsCOL· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T13
Ty France1B
SDvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T13
Carson BengeRF
NYM@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #61
T13
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsBAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T13
Charles McAdoo2B
TORvsBOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #69
T13
Nick Gonzales3B
PIT@MIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T13
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@MIN· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T13
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsBOS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T13
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsTB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T13
Ben RiceDH
NYYvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T13
Harry FordC
WSHvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T13
Jacob YoungCF
WSHvsCHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T13
Ronny Simon2B
PIT@MIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T13
Griffin ConineRF
MIAvsPIT· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T13
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsCLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T13
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHC@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T13
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@NYY· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T13
Corbin CarrollRF
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T13
Willi Castro2B
COL@AZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T13
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #150
T13
Spencer JonesRF
NYYvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T13
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T13
Gary SánchezC
MIL@SD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T13
Chase Meidroth2B
CWSvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T13
Ryan McMahon3B
NYYvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T13
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYYvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T13
Dansby SwansonSS
CHC@WSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T13
Agustín RamírezC
MIAvsPIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T13
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@ATH· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T13
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@STL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T13
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsBOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T13
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T13
Daylen LileLF
WSHvsCHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T13
Christian Koss3B
SFvsHOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #218
T13
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T13
Max KeplerLF
AZvsCOL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T13
Victor CaratiniC
MINvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #237
T13
Myles StrawCF
TORvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T13
Drew RomoC
CWSvsCIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #270
T13
Mike YastrzemskiLF
ATLvsNYM· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
63
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHC@WSH· 1-for-6
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T63
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsBOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T63
Luis Arraez2B
PHI@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T63
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@STL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T63
Brady House3B
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T63
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T63
Brandon Lowe2B
PIT@MIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T63
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #12
T63
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOU@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T63
Jonathan Aranda1B
TB@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T63
Andy PagesCF
LADvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T63
Freddie Freeman1B
LADvsKC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T63
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOU@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T63
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T63
Cole Young2B
SEA@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T63
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T63
Joc PedersonDH
TEX@LAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T63
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@STL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T63
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@NYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T63
Steven KwanLF
CLE@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T63
JJ Wetherholt2B
STLvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T63
Bo Bichette3B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T63
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T63
Iván HerreraDH
STLvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T63
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #60
T63
Nathan ChurchCF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T63
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T63
Cole CarriggCF
COL@AZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T63
Taylor WardDH
SEA@NYY· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T63
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #71
T63
Jordan WalkerRF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T63
Nico Hoerner2B
CHC@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T63
Donovan Walton2B
ATHvsTB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #76
T63
Xavier Edwards2B
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #80
T63
Brice Turang2B
MIL@SD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #84
T63
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T63
A.J. EwingCF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T63
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T63
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T63
Javier BáezSS
DETvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T63
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@STL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #105
T63
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsCLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T63
Andrew PinckneyLF
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T63
Jo AdellRF
CLE@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T63
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsHOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T63
Jackson MerrillCF
SDvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #119
T63
Michael Busch1B
CHC@WSH· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T63
Moisés BallesterosDH
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T63
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@SD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T63
Starling MarteRF
KC@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T63
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T63
Salvador PerezDH
KC@LAD· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T63
Luis RengifoLF
SDvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T63
Willy AdamesSS
SFvsHOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T63
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T63
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T63
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #151
T63
Dylan BeaversRF
BAL@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T63
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #155
T63
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T63
Jared Young1B
NYM@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T63
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T63
Lane ThomasLF
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T63
Brendan Donovan3B
SEA@NYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T63
Jake Cronenworth2B
SDvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T63
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T63
Angel Genao2B
CLE@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T63
Miguel Rojas2B
LADvsKC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #180
T63
Tommy White3B
ATHvsTB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T63
Austin WellsC
NYYvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T63
Richie Palacios2B
TB@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T63
Brenton DoyleCF
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T63
Nick AllenSS
HOU@SF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T63
Taylor TrammellCF
HOU@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T63
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T63
Jakob MarseeCF
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T63
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T63
Max ClarkCF
DETvsCLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T63
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T63
Tristan PetersCF
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T63
Christian FranklinCF
BAL@MIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T63
Brett SullivanC
COL@AZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T63
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T63
César Prieto3B
STLvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T63
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@TOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T63
Zac VeenLF
COL@AZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T63
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T63
Colson MontgomerySS
CWSvsCIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T63
Elias DíazC
TEX@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T63
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@SD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T63
Luis TorrensC
NYM@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T63
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSHvsCHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T63
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T63
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T63
Austin HedgesC
CLE@DET· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #243
T63
Sean MurphyC
ATLvsNYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #245
T63
Drew CavanaughC
SFvsHOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #247
T63
Taylor WallsSS
TB@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T63
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T63
Evan CarterCF
TEX@LAA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #254
T63
Cal RaleighC
SEA@NYY· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T63
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #257
T63
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@MIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T63
Brayan RocchioSS
CLE@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T63
Xander BogaertsSS
SDvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T63
Joe MackC
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T63
Josh Rojas3B
KC@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #267
T63
Carlos NarváezC
BAL@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T63
Jose SiriCF
LAAvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T63
Javier Sanoja3B
MIAvsPIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T63
Ian HappLF
CHC@WSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T63
Everson PereiraRF
STLvsPHI· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T63
Zach McKinstry2B
DETvsCLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Wednesday, August 12, 2026

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) is the top hits matchup on the Wednesday, August 12, 2026 board at 100, with Brett Bateman (TOR) and Shohei Ohtani (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Pete Crow-Armstrong

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Jackson Kent. The lefty is hitting .257 H/PA against lefties this year — and .450 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 27% of his trips. And Jackson Kent has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Jackson Kent. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Brett Bateman (TOR) (100) vs LHP Ranger Suarez: an excellent bat at .280 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.300).
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs LHP Daniel Lynch IV: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm tough on the same side (.200).
Luis Arraez (PHI) (100) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.379), due to bounce back.
Bryce Harper (PHI) (98) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a solid bat at .238 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.379), due to bounce back.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (97) vs RHP Merrill Kelly: an excellent bat at .283 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.278).
Brady House (WSH) (91) vs LHP David Peterson: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.270).
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (90) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: a league-average bat at .206 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.379), hot bat.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Kyle Schwarber (PHI).
RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Jake Mangum (PIT), and Nick Gonzales (PIT).
RHP Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), and Nolan Arenado (AZ).

Platoon edges to target

Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year.
Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year.
Brady House (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Jac Caglianone (KC), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Spencer Torkelson (DET), and Francisco Lindor (NYM). Cold but due to bounce back: Luis Arraez (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), Brandon Lowe (PIT), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Andrew Benintendi (CWS).

How it played out

8 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Pete Crow-Armstrong finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Wednesday, August 12, 2026)?: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Jackson Kent. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Wednesday, August 12, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Wednesday, August 12, 2026: Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Brett Bateman (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Luis Arraez (100), Bryce Harper (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Wednesday, August 12, 2026?: Yes — Pete Crow-Armstrong got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Luis Arraez (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .287 against righties this year. Bryce Harper (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .237 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .272 against righties this year. Brady House (WSH) — righty bat vs LHP, .329 against lefties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .189 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Luis Castillo has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .283 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Luis Arraez (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), and Kyle Schwarber (PHI). RHP Janson Junk has been vulnerable to righties — .266 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Brandon Lowe (PIT), Jake Mangum (PIT), and Nick Gonzales (PIT). RHP Ryan Feltner has been vulnerable to righties — .264 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Geraldo Perdomo (AZ), and Nolan Arenado (AZ).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Kyle Schwarber (PHI), Jac Caglianone (KC), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Spencer Torkelson (DET), and Francisco Lindor (NYM). Cold but due to bounce back: Luis Arraez (PHI), Bryce Harper (PHI), Brandon Lowe (PIT), Dillon Dingler (DET), and Andrew Benintendi (CWS).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.