Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 15, 2026)?

Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 15, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 15, 2026: Jung Hoo Lee (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Wade Meckler (100), Jake McCarthy (98), Yordan Alvarez (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 15, 2026?

Yes — Jung Hoo Lee got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .283 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .280 against righties this year. Drew Gilbert (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .228 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Masataka Yoshida (BOS), and Willson Contreras (BOS). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Osleivis Basabe (SF), and Drew Gilbert (SF). LHP Wandy Peralta has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: José Ramírez (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Jo Adell (CLE). RHP Emerson Hancock has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Daulton Varsho (HOU).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Every hitter on the Saturday, August 15, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 67%

Top 10

7/1070%

season 68%

Full slate

164/27061%

season 58%

Top call Jung Hoo Lee came through. Wade Meckler didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–3

CWSaway

DEThomeTop matchup66 Final · 8–4

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup81 Final · 1–4

NYYaway

TORhomeTop matchup64 Final · 1–7

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100 Final · 4–5

WSHaway

NYMhomeTop matchup82 Final · 4–3

BALaway

TBhomeTop matchup94 Final · 8–4

MIAaway

CINhomeTop matchup75 Final · 10–5

SEAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup97 Final · 1–6

SDaway

CLEhomeTop matchup78 Final · 9–1

PHIaway

MINhomeTop matchup73 Final · 10–3

AZaway

ATLhomeTop matchup87 Final · 4–1

MILaway

LADhomeTop matchup91 Final · 4–0

BOSaway

PIThomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–1

KCaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 5–3

TEXaway

ATHhomeTop matchup77

Not starting56 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 326 shownScore

167 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@MIN· 5-for-5
5HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
2
Jakob MarseeCF
MIA@CIN· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
3
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsCOL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T3
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsTEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T3
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsBAL· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T3
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@ATL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T3
Joshua BáezLF
STL@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #64
T3
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsKC· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T3
Brendan Donovan3B
SEA@HOU· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #77
T3
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TB· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T3
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsCWS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T3
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsSEA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T3
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@PIT· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T3
Joe MackC
MIA@CIN· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T3
Cole Young2B
SEA@HOU· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T3
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEX@ATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T3
Matt McLain2B
CINvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
18
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T18
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T18
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T18
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsBAL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T18
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T18
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T18
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T18
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T18
Corey SeagerSS
TEX@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T18
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T18
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T18
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T18
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T18
Jo AdellRF
CLEvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T18
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T18
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@NYM· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T18
Jared Young1B
NYMvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T18
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T18
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T18
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T18
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T18
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T18
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T18
Jake MangumCF
PITvsBOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T18
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@ATL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T18
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@CIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T18
Nolan Arenado3B
AZ@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T18
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T18
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T18
William ContrerasC
MIL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T18
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@ATL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T18
Victor RoblesRF
SEA@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T18
Adam Frazier2B
LAAvsKC· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T18
Charles McAdoo2B
TORvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T18
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #220
T18
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T18
Alex CallLF
LADvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T18
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #262
T18
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T18
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsNYY· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
58
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOS@PIT· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T58
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T58
Osleivis Basabe2B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T58
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #10
T58
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T58
Brady House3B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #13
T58
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T58
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T58
Luis LaraRF
MIL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T58
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #22
T58
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T58
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T58
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T58
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T58
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T58
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T58
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T58
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T58
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@PIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T58
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #39
T58
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T58
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T58
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T58
Luis Arraez2B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T58
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T58
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T58
Cole CarriggCF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T58
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T58
Hao-Yu Lee2B
DETvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T58
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T58
Austin MartinRF
MINvsPHI· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T58
Luis García Jr.1B
NYY@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T58
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T58
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T58
Josh BellDH
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T58
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T58
Willi Castro2B
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T58
Nathan LukesRF
TORvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T58
Michael Massey2B
KC@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T58
Buddy Kennedy1B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T58
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T58
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T58
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T58
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T58
Christian Koss3B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T58
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #133
T58
Jonah HeimC
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T58
Lars NootbaarLF
AZ@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T58
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T58
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T58
Trea TurnerSS
PHI@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #143
T58
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T58
Tommy White3B
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T58
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #153
T58
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T58
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T58
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #159
T58
Everson PereiraRF
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T58
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #163
T58
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYY@TOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #164
T58
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T58
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T58
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T58
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T58
Owen CaissieRF
MIA@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T58
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T58
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T58
Lane ThomasLF
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T58
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T58
Connor Norby2B
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T58
Pedro PagésC
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T58
JJ BledayLF
CINvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T58
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T58
Corey JulksLF
DETvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T58
Michael ConfortoDH
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T58
Graham Pauley3B
MIA@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T58
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T58
Andrew PinckneyLF
WSH@NYM· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T58
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T58
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T58
Francisco AlvarezC
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #213
T58
Dane MyersCF
CINvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T58
J.T. RealmutoC
PHI@MIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T58
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLEvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T58
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T58
Austin WynnsC
TEX@ATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T58
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T58
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T58
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #236
T58
Brock RoddenSS
SEA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T58
Max KeplerLF
AZ@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #238
T58
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #239
T58
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #240
T58
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #241
T58
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
T58
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T58
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T58
Evan CarterCF
TEX@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #250
T58
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T58
Nicky Lopez2B
TEX@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #254
T58
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T58
Brian ServenC
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #257
T58
Derek HillCF
PHI@MIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #258
T58
Austin WellsC
NYY@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #260
T58
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #261
T58
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T58
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #268
T58
Jake Burger1B
TEX@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T58
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T58
Tyrone TaylorLF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Saturday, August 15, 2026

Jung Hoo Lee (SF) is the top hits matchup on the Saturday, August 15, 2026 board at 100, with Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) and Wade Meckler (LAA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jung Hoo Lee

Jung Hoo Lee (SF) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. The lefty is hitting .283 H/PA against righties this year — and .233 over the last two weeks, a strong bat that turns into a hit in about 26% of his trips. And Michael Lorenzen has been getting tattooed by righties lately — .360 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. He's a fine .286 in 7 career PA against Michael Lorenzen. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS) (100) vs RHP Jared Jones: an excellent bat at .274 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.647).
Wade Meckler (LAA) (100) vs RHP Randy Dobnak: a strong bat at .253 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.292), hot bat.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (98) vs RHP Logan Webb: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.133), due to bounce back.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (97) vs RHP Emerson Hancock: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.412).
Osleivis Basabe (SF) (96) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: an excellent bat at .278 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.375).
Yandy Díaz (TB) (94) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: a strong bat at .256 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.357), hot bat.
Drew Gilbert (SF) (92) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: a solid bat at .225 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.360).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Masataka Yoshida (BOS), and Willson Contreras (BOS).
RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Osleivis Basabe (SF), and Drew Gilbert (SF).
LHP Wandy Peralta has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: José Ramírez (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Jo Adell (CLE).
RHP Emerson Hancock has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Daulton Varsho (HOU).

Platoon edges to target

Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .283 against righties this year.
Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .280 against righties this year.
Drew Gilbert (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .228 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Wade Meckler (LAA), Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), Sal Stewart (CIN), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Gabriel Moreno (AZ). Cold but due to bounce back: Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Jake McCarthy (COL), Matt Olson (ATL), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Joc Pederson (TEX).

How it played out

7 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jung Hoo Lee finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Saturday, August 15, 2026)?: Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Michael Lorenzen. A strong bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Saturday, August 15, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Saturday, August 15, 2026: Jung Hoo Lee (100), Ceddanne Rafaela (100), Wade Meckler (100), Jake McCarthy (98), Yordan Alvarez (97). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Saturday, August 15, 2026?: Yes — Jung Hoo Lee got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jung Hoo Lee (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .283 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .277 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .280 against righties this year. Drew Gilbert (SF) — lefty bat vs RHP, .228 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Jared Jones has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Ceddanne Rafaela (BOS), Masataka Yoshida (BOS), and Willson Contreras (BOS). RHP Michael Lorenzen has been vulnerable to righties — .286 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Osleivis Basabe (SF), and Drew Gilbert (SF). LHP Wandy Peralta has been vulnerable to lefties — .281 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: José Ramírez (CLE), Chase DeLauter (CLE), and Jo Adell (CLE). RHP Emerson Hancock has been vulnerable to righties — .267 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Yordan Alvarez (HOU), Jeremy Peña (HOU), and Daulton Varsho (HOU).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Wade Meckler (LAA), Yandy Díaz (TB), Chandler Simpson (TB), Sal Stewart (CIN), Jac Caglianone (KC), and Gabriel Moreno (AZ). Cold but due to bounce back: Jung Hoo Lee (SF), Jake McCarthy (COL), Matt Olson (ATL), Henry Bolte (ATH), and Joc Pederson (TEX).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.