Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 16, 2026)?

Jac Caglianone (KC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 16, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 16, 2026: Jac Caglianone (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Otto Lopez (99), Jake McCarthy (99), Sal Stewart (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 16, 2026?

No — Jac Caglianone didn't record a hit.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year. Javier Sanoja (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .311 against lefties this year.

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Sunday, August 16, 2026

Every hitter on the Sunday, August 16, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Sunday, August 16, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 67%

Top 10

6/1060%

season 67%

Full slate

168/27062%

season 58%

Top call Yordan Alvarez came through. Jac Caglianone didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 10–2

BALaway

TBhomeTop matchup92 Final · 3–5

AZaway

ATLhomeTop matchup94 Final · 3–8

BOSaway

PIThomeTop matchup82 Final · 4–3

NYYaway

TORhomeTop matchup93 Final · 7–1

MIAaway

CINhomeTop matchup99 Final · 7–5

CWSaway

DEThomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–4

WSHaway

NYMhomeTop matchup80 Final · 5–0

SDaway

CLEhomeTop matchup92 Final · 7–5

PHIaway

MINhomeTop matchup77 Final · 11–4

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup84 Final · 2–5

TEXaway

ATHhomeTop matchup87 Final · 13–7

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup99 Final · 3–0

KCaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100 Final · 6–2

MILaway

LADhomeTop matchup70 Final · 3–2

SEAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100

Not starting74 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 344 shownScore

173 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@LAD· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
2
Henry BolteCF
ATHvsTEX· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #19
T2
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CHC· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #20
T2
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsWSH· 3-for-3
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T2
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T2
Jake Burger1B
TEX@ATH· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #59
T2
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@LAD· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T2
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsBAL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #75
T2
Michael Massey2B
KC@LAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
10
Agustín RamírezC
MIA@CIN· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T10
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #32
T10
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T10
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsBOS· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T10
Zack Gelof3B
ATHvsTEX· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T10
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #60
T10
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T10
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T10
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #70
T10
JJ Wetherholt2B
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #76
T10
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T10
Jared Young1B
NYMvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T10
Andrew Vaughn1B
MIL@LAD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T10
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@HOU· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #99
T10
Charles McAdoo2B
TORvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #103
T10
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T10
Jose TrevinoC
CINvsMIA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T10
Alec Bohm3B
PHI@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T10
Tommy White3B
ATHvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T10
Colt Keith3B
DETvsCWS· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T10
Drew CavanaughC
SFvsCOL· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T10
Keibert RuizC
WSH@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T10
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #157
T10
James McCannC
AZ@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T10
Colton CowserCF
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T10
Luis RengifoLF
SD@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T10
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsTEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T10
Austin Riley3B
ATLvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T10
Nick Yorke3B
PITvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T10
Max Muncy3B
ATHvsTEX· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T10
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsPHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #216
T10
Jimmy CrooksC
STL@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T10
Blaze Jordan3B
STL@CHC· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T10
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T10
Connor WongC
BOS@PIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #253
T10
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@DET· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
46
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #2
T46
Otto LopezSS
MIA@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T46
Jake McCarthyLF
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T46
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T46
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T46
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #8
T46
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T46
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TB· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #14
T46
Brandon NimmoRF
TEX@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #15
T46
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #16
T46
Osleivis Basabe2B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #17
T46
Drew GilbertCF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #18
T46
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #22
T46
Jung Hoo LeeRF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T46
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsBOS· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T46
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@LAA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T46
Matt Olson1B
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T46
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T46
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #31
T46
Bryson Stott2B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T46
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T46
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T46
Abimelec Ortiz1B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T46
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T46
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLEvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #47
T46
Mickey MoniakLF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T46
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T46
Luis Arraez2B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T46
Trevor LarnachLF
MINvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T46
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T46
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T46
Cole CarriggCF
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T46
Dillon DinglerC
DETvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T46
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T46
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #65
T46
Justin Foscue2B
TEX@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T46
Willi Castro2B
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T46
Andy PagesCF
LADvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T46
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #73
T46
Luis García Jr.1B
NYY@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T46
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T46
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsMIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T46
William ContrerasC
MIL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T46
Bryce Harper1B
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T46
Dominic SmithDH
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T46
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LADvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T46
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAAvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T46
Josh BellDH
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T46
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #95
T46
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T46
Carter JensenC
KC@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T46
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #101
T46
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T46
Jackson MerrillCF
SD@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T46
Ronald Acuña Jr.RF
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T46
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T46
Royce Lewis1B
MINvsPHI· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T46
Esteury RuizRF
MIA@CIN· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T46
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T46
Jake MangumCF
PITvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T46
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T46
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T46
LaMonte Wade Jr.LF
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #128
T46
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@DET· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T46
Jim JarvisSS
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T46
Cody Freeman3B
TEX@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #132
T46
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #133
T46
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T46
Leo Jiménez3B
MIA@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T46
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T46
Caleb Durbin3B
BOS@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T46
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T46
Zac VeenLF
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T46
Leody TaverasCF
BAL@TB· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T46
Heliot RamosLF
NYY@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #158
T46
Alika WilliamsSS
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #160
T46
Turner HillCF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #161
T46
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsPHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #162
T46
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #163
T46
Justin CrawfordCF
PHI@MIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #165
T46
Buddy Kennedy1B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #167
T46
Ian HappLF
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #172
T46
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
T46
Christian Koss3B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #181
T46
Ben RiceDH
NYY@TOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T46
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYY@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T46
Jorge MateoSS
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T46
Salvador PerezDH
KC@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T46
Max Muncy3B
LADvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T46
Freddy FerminC
SD@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T46
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@DET· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T46
Nick FortesC
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #196
T46
Max KeplerLF
AZ@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T46
Brett CallahanLF
DETvsCWS· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T46
Brett SullivanC
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T46
Yohel PozoC
BAL@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T46
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T46
Anthony Seigler2B
BOS@PIT· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T46
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsPHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #210
T46
Daz CameronRF
TORvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T46
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #212
T46
Coby Mayo3B
BAL@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T46
Darell HernaizSS
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T46
Max ClarkCF
DETvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T46
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #224
T46
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@NYM· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T46
Miguel AmayaC
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T46
Brett Baty3B
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T46
Adael Amador2B
COL@SF· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T46
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T46
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
T46
Jonathan OrnelasSS
MIL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T46
José CaballeroSS
NYY@TOR· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #245
T46
Nick AllenSS
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T46
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #247
T46
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@CLE· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T46
Brock RoddenSS
SEA@HOU· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T46
Edmundo SosaLF
PHI@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #258
T46
Kyle IsbelCF
KC@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #263
T46
Jorge PolancoDH
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #264
T46
Evan CarterCF
TEX@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #267
T46
Cal RaleighC
SEA@HOU· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #269
T46
Drew RomoC
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.7 H, #270
T46
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsMIA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T46
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T46
Connor Norby2B
COL@SF· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T46
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@TOR· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H
T46
Hunter FeducciaC
LADvsMIL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Sunday, August 16, 2026

Jac Caglianone (KC) is the top hits matchup on the Sunday, August 16, 2026 board at 100, with Yordan Alvarez (HOU) and Otto Lopez (MIA) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jac Caglianone

Jac Caglianone (KC) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. The lefty is hitting .255 H/PA against righties this year — and .500 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a hit in about 29% of his trips. And Ryan Johnson has been tough on righties lately — .143 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Johnson. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a strong bat at .270 into an arm tough on the same side (.107).
Otto Lopez (MIA) (99) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: a strong bat at .262 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333).
Jake McCarthy (COL) (99) vs RHP Blade Tidwell: an excellent bat at .275 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.350).
Sal Stewart (CIN) (95) vs RHP Eury Pérez: a solid bat at .249 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.316), hot bat.
Javier Sanoja (MIA) (94) vs LHP Nick Lodolo: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), due to bounce back.
Gabriel Moreno (AZ) (94) vs RHP Bryce Elder: a strong bat at .265 into an arm tough on the same side (.176), hot bat.
Jeremy Peña (HOU) (94) vs RHP Bryan Woo: a solid bat at .241 into an arm tough on the same side (.188).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Blade Tidwell has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Troy Johnston (COL).

Platoon edges to target

Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year.
Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year.
Javier Sanoja (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .311 against lefties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jac Caglianone (KC), Sal Stewart (CIN), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Brett Bateman (TOR), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: Javier Sanoja (MIA), Agustín Ramírez (MIA), Jared Triolo (PIT), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Mickey Moniak (COL).

How it played out

6 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jac Caglianone finished with 0 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Sunday, August 16, 2026)?: Jac Caglianone (KC) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Ryan Johnson. An excellent bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Sunday, August 16, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Sunday, August 16, 2026: Jac Caglianone (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Otto Lopez (99), Jake McCarthy (99), Sal Stewart (95). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Sunday, August 16, 2026?: No — Jac Caglianone didn't record a hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .255 against righties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .278 against righties this year. Otto Lopez (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .347 against lefties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .264 against righties this year. Javier Sanoja (MIA) — righty bat vs LHP, .311 against lefties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Blade Tidwell has been vulnerable to righties — .271 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jake McCarthy (COL), Mickey Moniak (COL), and Troy Johnston (COL).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jac Caglianone (KC), Sal Stewart (CIN), Gabriel Moreno (AZ), Brett Bateman (TOR), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Chase DeLauter (CLE). Cold but due to bounce back: Javier Sanoja (MIA), Agustín Ramírez (MIA), Jared Triolo (PIT), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Mickey Moniak (COL).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.