Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, August 14, 2026)?

Jonah Cox (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, August 14, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Friday, August 14, 2026: Jonah Cox (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Brandon Nimmo (98), Jac Caglianone (97), Wade Meckler (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .246 against righties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Kumar Rocker has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH). RHP Robert Stock has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Daylen Lile (WSH). RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chandler Simpson (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Friday, August 14, 2026

Every hitter on the Friday, August 14, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Friday, August 14, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 3/5 (60%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

3/560%

season 67%

Top 10

5/1050%

season 68%

Full slate

155/25262%

season 58%

Top call Jonah Cox came through. Pete Crow-Armstrong didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 0–3

STLaway

CHChomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–1

MIAaway

CINhomeTop matchup80 Final · 4–8

BOSaway

PIThomeTop matchup78 Final · 9–5

CWSaway

DEThomeTop matchup70 Final · 7–5

SDaway

CLEhomeTop matchup68 Final · 1–4

WSHaway

NYMhomeTop matchup90 Final · 6–5

BALaway

TBhomeTop matchup95 Final · 2–0

AZaway

ATLhomeTop matchup72 Final · 1–3

NYYaway

TORhomeTop matchup70 Final · 7–10

SEAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup82 Final · 7–6

KCaway

LAAhomeTop matchup97 Final · 3–8

TEXaway

ATHhomeTop matchup98 Final · 1–3

MILaway

LADhomeTop matchup75 Final · 5–2

COLaway

SFhomeTop matchup100

Not starting65 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 317 shownScore

160 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Jeff McNeil2B
ATHvsTEX· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T1
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@ATL· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T1
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@DET· 4-for-5
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #145
T1
Gunnar HendersonSS
BAL@TB· 4-for-4
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #175
5
Jac CaglianoneRF
KC@LAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T5
Andy PagesCF
LADvsMIL· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T5
Nathaniel Lowe1B
CLEvsSD· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T5
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsBOS· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #114
T5
Michael Massey2B
KC@LAA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #121
T5
Braden MontgomeryRF
CWS@DET· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #192
T5
Victor RoblesRF
SEA@HOU· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T5
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@DET· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #231
13
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #12
T13
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsBOS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T13
Corbin CarrollRF
AZ@ATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T13
Eduardo ValenciaDH
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T13
Ty France1B
SD@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #37
T13
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsSTL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T13
Brett BatemanCF
TORvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #48
T13
Pete Alonso1B
BAL@TB· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T13
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAAvsKC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #68
T13
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@TOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #70
T13
Masataka YoshidaDH
BOS@PIT· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #72
T13
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEX@ATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T13
Alejandro KirkC
TORvsNYY· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T13
Randy ArozarenaLF
SEA@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T13
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #93
T13
Nick Sogard2B
BOS@PIT· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T13
Luis CampusanoC
SD@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #115
T13
Isaac Paredes3B
HOUvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T13
Brady House3B
WSH@NYM· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T13
Tommy Edman2B
LADvsMIL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #141
T13
Osleivis Basabe2B
SFvsCOL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T13
Gleyber Torres2B
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #147
T13
Manny Machado3B
SD@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #162
T13
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsBAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #168
T13
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@DET· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T13
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #179
T13
Christian Walker1B
HOUvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #182
T13
Angel Genao2B
CLEvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T13
Ben MalgeriRF
DETvsCWS· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T13
Tyler HeinemanC
LAAvsKC· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #207
T13
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #208
T13
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@CLE· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #217
T13
Brett SullivanC
COL@SF· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #223
T13
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsSD· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #246
T13
Dylan BeaversRF
BAL@TB· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
48
Jonah CoxCF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T48
Wade MecklerLF
LAAvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T48
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T48
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #11
T48
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsBAL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T48
Tyler SoderstromLF
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T48
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #16
T48
Victor BericotoLF
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T48
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KC@LAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T48
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T48
Daylen LileLF
WSH@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T48
Teoscar HernándezLF
LADvsMIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #23
T48
Ronny Simon2B
PITvsBOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T48
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #26
T48
Bryce EldridgeDH
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T48
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@ATL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T48
Drake BaldwinC
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T48
Vladimir Guerrero Jr.1B
TORvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T48
Otto LopezSS
MIA@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T48
Tyler StephensonC
CINvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T48
Rafael Devers1B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T48
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T48
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@ATL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #49
T48
Spencer Torkelson1B
DETvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #50
T48
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T48
Jake Burger1B
TEX@ATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T48
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #56
T48
Mauricio DubónLF
ATLvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T48
Iván HerreraDH
STL@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #63
T48
Jackson ChourioLF
MIL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T48
Liam HicksC
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #67
T48
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #69
T48
TJ Rumfield1B
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #73
T48
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T48
Chase DeLauterRF
CLEvsSD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #80
T48
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T48
Francisco LindorSS
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T48
Julio RodríguezCF
SEA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #85
T48
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T48
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #89
T48
Tyler O'NeillRF
BAL@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #92
T48
Troy JohnstonRF
COL@SF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #96
T48
Jackson Holliday2B
BAL@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #97
T48
Mookie BettsSS
LADvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T48
Carson KellyC
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T48
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PITvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T48
Eugenio SuárezDH
CINvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T48
Carson BengeRF
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #113
T48
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@DET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #116
T48
Willson Contreras1B
BOS@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #118
T48
Colt Keith3B
DETvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #120
T48
Mike TroutCF
LAAvsKC· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T48
Carlos CortesRF
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T48
Christian Koss3B
SFvsCOL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #134
T48
Isaac CollinsLF
KC@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #135
T48
Kevin McGonigleSS
DETvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #136
T48
Andrew BenintendiDH
CWS@DET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #138
T48
Wilyer AbreuRF
BOS@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #140
T48
Brandon Lowe2B
PITvsBOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #142
T48
Andrés GiménezSS
TORvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #144
T48
JJ BledayLF
CINvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #149
T48
Nick Loftin3B
KC@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T48
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T48
Zac VeenLF
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #154
T48
Jorbit Vivas3B
WSH@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T48
Marcus Semien2B
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T48
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #161
T48
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOS@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #165
T48
Bryan TorresLF
STL@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T48
Michael Toglia1B
CINvsMIA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T48
Josh LoweLF
LAAvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T48
Denzer Guzman3B
LAAvsKC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #174
T48
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T48
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #177
T48
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T48
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #180
T48
Eli WhiteRF
BOS@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T48
Zach NetoSS
LAAvsKC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T48
Kyle IsbelCF
KC@LAA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T48
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #187
T48
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@ATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T48
Graham Pauley3B
MIA@CIN· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T48
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TORvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T48
Ryan McMahon3B
NYY@TOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #198
T48
Jake Bauers1B
MIL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #199
T48
Daulton VarshoCF
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #200
T48
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #201
T48
Max ClarkCF
DETvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T48
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYY@TOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
T48
Ernie Clement2B
TORvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T48
Jared Young1B
NYMvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #214
T48
Brendan Donovan3B
SEA@HOU· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T48
Dansby SwansonSS
CHCvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #220
T48
Jarren DuranLF
BOS@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #224
T48
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T48
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsBAL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T48
Ezequiel TovarSS
COL@SF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T48
Christian VázquezC
HOUvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #229
T48
Joey OrtizSS
MIL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #230
T48
Colton CowserCF
BAL@TB· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #232
T48
Max Muncy3B
LADvsMIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T48
José FermínLF
STL@CHC· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T48
Luis LaraRF
MIL@LAD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #237
T48
Xander BogaertsSS
SD@CLE· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #239
T48
Brock RoddenSS
SEA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #241
T48
Gavin Sheets1B
SD@CLE· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #244
T48
Luis RengifoLF
SD@CLE· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #248
T48
David Hamilton3B
MIL@LAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T48
Evan CarterCF
TEX@ATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T48
Lars NootbaarLF
AZ@ATL· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T48
Jacob GonzalezSS
PITvsBOS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T48
Tommy White3B
ATHvsTEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T48
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsMIA· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Friday, August 14, 2026

Jonah Cox (SF) is the top hits matchup on the Friday, August 14, 2026 board at 100, with Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) and Brandon Nimmo (TEX) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Jonah Cox

Jonah Cox (SF) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. The righty is hitting — H/PA against lefties this year, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Kyle Freeland has been tough on lefties lately — .206 hits per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Kyle Freeland. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC) (100) vs LHP Matthew Liberatore: an excellent bat at .277 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.400).
Brandon Nimmo (TEX) (98) vs LHP Gage Jump: an excellent bat at .295 into an arm tough on the same side (.100), due to bounce back.
Jac Caglianone (KC) (97) vs RHP Grayson Rodriguez: an excellent bat at .285 into an arm tough on the same side (.125), hot bat.
Wade Meckler (LAA) (96) vs RHP Seth Lugo: a strong bat at .255 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.219), hot bat.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (95) vs RHP Landen Roupp: an excellent bat at .279 into an arm tough on the same side (.154), due to bounce back.
Chandler Simpson (TB) (95) vs RHP Chris Bassitt: an elite bat at .304 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
Jeff McNeil (ATH) (91) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: a strong bat at .250 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.500).

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Kumar Rocker has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH).
RHP Robert Stock has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Daylen Lile (WSH).
RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chandler Simpson (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB).
LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).

Platoon edges to target

Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year.
Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year.
Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year.
Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year.
Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .246 against righties this year.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Jac Caglianone (KC), Wade Meckler (LAA), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Sal Stewart (CIN), and Ronny Simon (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Jonah Cox (SF), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Jake McCarthy (COL), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Otto Lopez (MIA).

How it played out

5 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Jonah Cox finished with 1 hit. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Friday, August 14, 2026)?: Jonah Cox (SF) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Freeland. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Friday, August 14, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Friday, August 14, 2026: Jonah Cox (100), Pete Crow-Armstrong (100), Brandon Nimmo (98), Jac Caglianone (97), Wade Meckler (96). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Friday, August 14, 2026?: Yes — Jonah Cox got 1 hit.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Jac Caglianone (KC) — lefty bat vs RHP, .253 against righties this year. Wade Meckler (LAA) — lefty bat vs RHP, .279 against righties this year. Jake McCarthy (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .268 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Jeff McNeil (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .246 against righties this year.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Kumar Rocker has been vulnerable to righties — .282 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Jeff McNeil (ATH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), and Jacob Wilson (ATH). RHP Robert Stock has been vulnerable to righties — .272 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Daylen Lile (WSH). RHP Chris Bassitt has been vulnerable to righties — .270 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Chandler Simpson (TB), Yandy Díaz (TB), and Jonathan Aranda (TB). LHP Matthew Liberatore has been vulnerable to lefties — .269 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Pete Crow-Armstrong (CHC), Seiya Suzuki (CHC), and Michael Busch (CHC).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Jac Caglianone (KC), Wade Meckler (LAA), Abimelec Ortiz (WSH), Tyler Soderstrom (ATH), Sal Stewart (CIN), and Ronny Simon (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Jonah Cox (SF), Brandon Nimmo (TEX), Jake McCarthy (COL), Bryan Reynolds (PIT), and Otto Lopez (MIA).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.