Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, August 18, 2026)?

Drake Baldwin (ATL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, August 18, 2026)?

The top hits matchups on Tuesday, August 18, 2026: Drake Baldwin (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Freddie Freeman (95), Chandler Simpson (94), Cole Carrigg (86). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.

Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, August 18, 2026?

Yes — Drake Baldwin got 2 hits.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .244 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .281 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .287 against lefties this year.

Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?

RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Nick Loftin (KC), and Maikel Garcia (KC).

How is the hits matchup score calculated?

It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.

It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.

What are park factors?

Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for hits props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB hits matchups — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Every hitter on the Tuesday, August 18, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to get a hit. Results show how each call played out.

How the model did — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 5/5 (100%) on 1+ hit, against 67% on the season.

Top 5

5/5100%

season 67%

Top 10

10/10100%

season 68%

Full slate

165/27061%

season 58%

Top call Drake Baldwin came through. Yordan Alvarez didn't.

Each hitter below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average hitter in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 3–1

NYYaway

BALhomeTop matchup64 Final · 10–5

TORaway

TBhomeTop matchup94 Final · 4–6

MIAaway

PHIhomeTop matchup67 Final · 1–4

DETaway

PIThomeTop matchup73 Final · 1–8

SFaway

CLEhomeTop matchup69 Final · 3–0

STLaway

CINhomeTop matchup72 Final · 4–9

AZaway

BOShomeTop matchup74 Final · 5–2

SDaway

NYMhomeTop matchup78 Final · 3–4

ATHaway

KChomeTop matchup85 Final · 0–22

SEAaway

MILhomeTop matchup70 Final · 1–4

ATLaway

MINhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–5

WSHaway

TEXhomeTop matchup75 Final · 3–4

CWSaway

CHChomeTop matchup77 Final · 3–1

LAAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup77 Final · 7–6

LADaway

COLhomeTop matchup100

Not starting56 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 326 shownScore

173 with a HLive count — updates as games play

1
Garrett MitchellCF
MILvsSEA· 4-for-6
4HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #209
2
Michael Harris IICF
ATL@MIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #11
T2
Alejandro KirkC
TOR@TB· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #15
T2
José Ramírez3B
CLEvsSF· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #29
T2
Jo AdellRF
CLEvsSF· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #45
T2
Luis Arraez2B
PHIvsMIA· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #55
T2
Manny Machado3B
SD@NYM· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #81
T2
George SpringerDH
TOR@TB· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #88
T2
Luis LaraRF
MILvsSEA· 3-for-6
3HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #139
T2
Ernie Clement2B
TOR@TB· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #153
T2
Masyn WinnSS
STL@CIN· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #160
T2
Colson MontgomerySS
CWS@CHC· 3-for-4
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #215
T2
David Hamilton3B
MILvsSEA· 3-for-5
3HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #239
14
Drake BaldwinC
ATL@MIN· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #1
T14
Freddie Freeman1B
LAD@COL· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #3
T14
Chandler SimpsonLF
TBvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #4
T14
Jake McCarthyLF
COLvsLAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #8
T14
Bo Bichette3B
NYMvsSD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #10
T14
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@TEX· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #24
T14
Yandy DíazDH
TBvsTOR· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #31
T14
Fernando Tatis Jr.RF
SD@NYM· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #33
T14
Alec Bohm3B
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #35
T14
Brandon NimmoRF
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #36
T14
Jac CaglianoneRF
KCvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #42
T14
Jonah CoxCF
SF@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #43
T14
Luke Keaschall2B
MINvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #51
T14
Wyatt LangfordLF
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #52
T14
Trent GrishamCF
NYY@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #57
T14
Brett BatemanCF
TOR@TB· 2-for-6
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #58
T14
Alex Bregman3B
CHCvsCWS· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #63
T14
TJ Rumfield1B
COLvsLAD· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #64
T14
Ryan JeffersC
MINvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #66
T14
Junior Caminero3B
TBvsTOR· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #79
T14
Nick Sogard2B
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #84
T14
Nolan Schanuel1B
LAA@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #87
T14
Willi Castro2B
COLvsLAD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #95
T14
Corey SeagerSS
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #104
T14
Jake Bauers1B
MILvsSEA· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #109
T14
Griffin ConineRF
MIA@PHI· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #112
T14
Jeff McNeil2B
ATH@KC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #122
T14
Josh BellDH
MINvsATL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #127
T14
Christian YelichDH
MILvsSEA· 2-for-5
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #129
T14
Zach NetoSS
LAA@HOU· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #136
T14
Willson Contreras1B
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #138
T14
Brett CallahanLF
DET@PIT· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #145
T14
Bryce EldridgeDH
SF@CLE· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #146
T14
Tristan PetersCF
CWS@CHC· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #148
T14
Tommy Edman2B
LAD@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #151
T14
William ContrerasC
MILvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #155
T14
Angel Genao2B
CLEvsSF· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #170
T14
Adley RutschmanC
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #172
T14
Vinnie Pasquantino1B
KCvsATH· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #190
T14
Cody Freeman3B
TEXvsWSH· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #194
T14
Teoscar HernándezLF
LAD@COL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #198
T14
Andruw MonasterioSS
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #206
T14
George Lombard Jr.SS
NYY@BAL· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #221
T14
Luis TorrensC
NYMvsSD· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #227
T14
Josh Smith2B
TOR@TB· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #231
T14
Justin CrawfordCF
PHIvsMIA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #244
T14
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsSEA· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #246
T14
Mickey GasperC
BOSvsAZ· 2-for-2
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #249
T14
Leody TaverasCF
BALvsNYY· 2-for-4
2HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #265
T14
Ryan ViladeRF
TBvsTOR· 2-for-3
2HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
64
Shohei OhtaniTWP
LAD@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #2
T64
Cole CarriggCF
COLvsLAD· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #5
T64
Bobby Witt Jr.SS
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #6
T64
Andy PagesCF
LAD@COL· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.2 H, #7
T64
Henry BolteCF
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #9
T64
Sam AntonacciLF
CWS@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #14
T64
Ildemaro Vargas1B
AZ@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #17
T64
Gleyber Torres2B
DET@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #19
T64
Maikel Garcia3B
KCvsATH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #20
T64
Wade MecklerLF
LAA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #21
T64
Pete Crow-ArmstrongCF
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #25
T64
Tommy White3B
ATH@KC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #27
T64
Kevin McGonigleSS
DET@PIT· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #28
T64
Nico Hoerner2B
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #30
T64
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsWSH· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #34
T64
Xavier Edwards2B
MIA@PHI· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #38
T64
Jordan WalkerRF
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #40
T64
Gabriel MorenoC
AZ@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #41
T64
Josh Naylor1B
SEA@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #44
T64
Angel MartínezLF
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #46
T64
Sal Stewart1B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #53
T64
Jonathan Aranda1B
TBvsTOR· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #54
T64
Ceddanne RafaelaCF
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #56
T64
Nathan LukesRF
TOR@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #61
T64
Colt Keith3B
DET@PIT· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #62
T64
Spencer Horwitz1B
PITvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #68
T64
Daylen LileLF
WSH@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #71
T64
Jackson ChourioLF
MILvsSEA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #74
T64
Ty France1B
SD@NYM· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #78
T64
Kyle SchwarberDH
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #82
T64
Austin HaysLF
SD@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #86
T64
Alec Burleson1B
STL@CIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #90
T64
Pedro Ramírez2B
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #91
T64
Michael Massey2B
KCvsATH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #94
T64
Ezequiel DuranSS
TEXvsWSH· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #98
T64
Pete Alonso1B
BALvsNYY· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #100
T64
Max Muncy3B
LAD@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H, #101
T64
Munetaka Murakami1B
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #102
T64
Geraldo PerdomoSS
AZ@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #106
T64
Jake MangumCF
PITvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #107
T64
Brendan Donovan3B
SEA@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #108
T64
Bryson Stott2B
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #110
T64
Dominic CanzoneDH
SEA@MIL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #111
T64
Miguel Vargas3B
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #117
T64
Luis Robert Jr.CF
NYMvsSD· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #123
T64
Jesús SánchezRF
TOR@TB· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #124
T64
Ozzie Albies2B
ATL@MIN· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #125
T64
Jose Altuve2B
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #126
T64
Justin Foscue2B
TEXvsWSH· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #128
T64
Liam HicksC
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #131
T64
Steven KwanLF
CLEvsSF· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #137
T64
Coby Mayo3B
BALvsNYY· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #140
T64
Bryan ReynoldsLF
PITvsDET· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #147
T64
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #149
T64
Jake Cronenworth2B
SD@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #152
T64
Kaelen CulpepperSS
MINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #154
T64
Chase Meidroth2B
CWS@CHC· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #156
T64
Denzer Guzman3B
LAA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #157
T64
Rafael Flores Jr.C
PITvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #158
T64
James McCannC
AZ@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #166
T64
Oneil CruzCF
PITvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #167
T64
Tim Tawa1B
AZ@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #169
T64
Kazuma Okamoto3B
TOR@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #171
T64
Lawrence ButlerRF
ATH@KC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #173
T64
Harry FordC
WSH@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #176
T64
Heriberto HernándezLF
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #178
T64
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #181
T64
José FermínLF
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #183
T64
Vaughn Grissom2B
LAA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #184
T64
Brooks Lee3B
MINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #185
T64
Nasim Nuñez2B
WSH@TEX· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #186
T64
Kody Clemens1B
MINvsATL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #188
T64
Christian Koss3B
SF@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #189
T64
Dylan CrewsRF
WSH@TEX· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #191
T64
Dane MyersCF
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #193
T64
Andrés GiménezSS
TOR@TB· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #195
T64
Spencer JonesRF
NYY@BAL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #197
T64
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #202
T64
Javier Sanoja3B
MIA@PHI· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #203
T64
Christopher Morel1B
NYMvsSD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #204
T64
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #205
T64
Brock RoddenSS
SEA@MIL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #211
T64
Kyle TuckerRF
LAD@COL· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #217
T64
Carter JensenC
KCvsATH· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #219
T64
Josh LoweLF
LAA@HOU· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #222
T64
Freddy FerminC
SD@NYM· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #225
T64
Ian HappLF
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #226
T64
Jarren DuranLF
BOSvsAZ· 1-for-5
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #228
T64
Yainer DiazC
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #232
T64
Jose FernandezDH
AZ@BOS· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #233
T64
Richie Palacios2B
TBvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #234
T64
Pedro PagésC
STL@CIN· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #235
T64
Connor Norby2B
COLvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H, #238
T64
Ryan WaldschmidtCF
AZ@BOS· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #240
T64
Jared TrioloSS
PITvsDET· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #241
T64
Cedric MullinsCF
TBvsTOR· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #250
T64
Ke'Bryan Hayes3B
CINvsSTL· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #252
T64
Taylor WallsSS
TBvsTOR· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #255
T64
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsSF· 1-for-4
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #256
T64
Buddy Kennedy1B
SF@CLE· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #257
T64
Cam SmithRF
HOUvsLAA· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #259
T64
Drew RomoC
CWS@CHC· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.8 H, #266
T64
Braxton FulfordDH
COLvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H, #268
T64
Byron BuxtonCF
MINvsATL· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.1 H
T64
Carson KellyC
CHCvsCWS· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T64
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 1.0 H
T64
Brandon LockridgeLF
MILvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T64
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@TEX· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T64
Turner HillCF
SF@CLE· 1-for-1
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H
T64
Jonathan OrnelasSS
MILvsSEA· 1-for-2
1HFinal
Proj 0.9 H

Best MLB Hits Matchups — Tuesday, August 18, 2026

Drake Baldwin (ATL) is the top hits matchup on the Tuesday, August 18, 2026 board at 100, with Shohei Ohtani (LAD) and Freddie Freeman (LAD) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to get a hit — handedness splits, the pitcher and bullpen they're facing, batting order, park, and weather. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top hits spot: Drake Baldwin

Drake Baldwin (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. The lefty is hitting .251 H/PA against righties this year — and .263 over the last two weeks, a solid bat that turns into a hit in about 25% of his trips. And Zebby Matthews has been vulnerable to righties lately — .269 hits per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zebby Matthews. It all sets up in a neutral park, weather helping.

The rest of the top of the board

Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .252 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) (95) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .256 into an arm tough on the same side (.207), hitter's park.
Chandler Simpson (TB) (94) vs RHP José Soriano: an excellent bat at .288 into an arm tough on the same side (.160), hot bat.
Cole Carrigg (COL) (86) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a strong bat at .263 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.286), hitter's park.
Bobby Witt Jr. (KC) (85) vs LHP Brady Basso: a strong bat at .258 into an arm tough on the same side (.167).
Andy Pages (LAD) (84) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a solid bat at .239 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.263), hitter's park.
Jake McCarthy (COL) (82) vs LHP Eric Lauer: a solid bat at .242 into an arm getting tattooed by the same side (.333), hitter's park.

Pitchers getting tattooed today

RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN).
LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Nick Loftin (KC), and Maikel Garcia (KC).

Platoon edges to target

Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year.
Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .244 against righties this year.
Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .281 against righties this year.
Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year.
Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .287 against lefties this year.

Best parks to hit in today

Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at 100.

Hot bats and bounce-back spots

Swinging hot bats: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Chandler Simpson (TB), Bo Bichette (NYM), Alejandro Kirk (TOR), Luis Rengifo (SD), and Brandon Lowe (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Nick Loftin (KC), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Wade Meckler (LAA), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Angel Martínez (CLE).

How it played out

10 of the top 10 hits matchups landed at least one hit. Top play Drake Baldwin finished with 2 hits. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these hits matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's hits per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the hits board is

The Hits board projects the chance a hitter records at least one hit, matchup-adjusted. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's contact rate vs this pitcher's hand.
The starter's hit-suppression and the park.
Recent form, without over-reacting to a hot or cold week.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Hits is an efficient market — the book prices a 1+ hit line about as well as we do, so we publish our number as graded transparency, not a play. Our projection is sharp (the ranking is well-calibrated); the book just isn't leaving room on it.

How to use it

Use it to see who the model likes to square one up, and how that squares with the price — but there's no systematic edge here, so treat it as research, not a lean.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best hits matchup today (Tuesday, August 18, 2026)?: Drake Baldwin (ATL) — top of the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. A solid bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB hits matchups today (Tuesday, August 18, 2026)?: The top hits matchups on Tuesday, August 18, 2026: Drake Baldwin (100), Shohei Ohtani (100), Freddie Freeman (95), Chandler Simpson (94), Cole Carrigg (86). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by hits upside.
Did the top hits matchup get a hit on Tuesday, August 18, 2026?: Yes — Drake Baldwin got 2 hits.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .251 against righties this year. Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .244 against righties this year. Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .281 against righties this year. Chandler Simpson (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .302 against righties this year. Cole Carrigg (COL) — righty bat vs LHP, .287 against lefties this year.
Which parks favor hits today?: Coors Field is playing as a real hitter's park today (+6% hits park). Top bat there: Shohei Ohtani (LAD) at 100.
Which pitchers are most vulnerable today?: RHP Kyle Leahy has been vulnerable to righties — .274 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Elly De La Cruz (CIN), Sal Stewart (CIN), and JJ Bleday (CIN). LHP Brady Basso has been vulnerable to lefties — .263 hits per batter faced. Bats to target: Bobby Witt Jr. (KC), Nick Loftin (KC), and Maikel Garcia (KC).
Are any hitters hot or due today?: Swinging hot bats: Drake Baldwin (ATL), Chandler Simpson (TB), Bo Bichette (NYM), Alejandro Kirk (TOR), Luis Rengifo (SD), and Brandon Lowe (PIT). Cold but due to bounce back: Nick Loftin (KC), Sam Antonacci (CWS), Wade Meckler (LAA), CJ Abrams (WSH), and Angel Martínez (CLE).
How is the hits matchup score calculated?: It's a weighted read of how often he gets a hit against the hand he's facing — last two weeks first, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then the opposing bullpen, his spot in the order, and the yard. Scores run 0–100 across the slate, so today's best matchup is always 100.
What does H/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's trips to the plate that end in a hit. Around .250 is league average. .300+ is elite. We use it instead of batting average because it's measured per plate appearance — exactly what a daily matchup is asking.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better for the hitter. 80s and 90s mean the bat, the arm, and the yard all point the same way. 40s and 50s mean it's neutral to tough. It ranks today's spots against each other — it isn't the odds of a hit.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a hit.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Most bats hit the opposite hand better, and on a contact board that gap is mostly about seeing the ball early — a lefty picks up a righty's fastball a beat sooner and shoots it the other way. The score leans on each hitter's rate against the hand he's facing today, so the same guy can lead this board on Tuesday and sit mid-pack on Wednesday.
What are park factors?: Parks aren't neutral for base hits. Big outfield gaps and fast turf turn playable balls into singles and doubles; deep foul ground eats an extra out an inning. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a hit in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for hits props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ hit" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score, and the top of the hits board lands a hit far more often than the slate as a whole. Weights are re-tuned weekly on a held-out split, and because results sit next to the projections you can audit any past date yourself.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.