Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026
Top home runs spot: Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Ryan Weathers. The righty is going deep on .150 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 8% of his trips. And Ryan Weathers has been keeping the ball in the park against lefties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Weathers. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Janson Junk: big-time bat at .059 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (98) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: elite bat at .069 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (89) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: big-time bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (88) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: elite bat at .068 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Shea Langeliers (ATH) (83) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: elite bat at .066 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Coby Mayo (BAL) (82) vs LHP Payton Tolle: elite bat at .070 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (80) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: big-time bat at .060 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .150 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .084 against righties this year.
How it played out
1 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Esmerlyn Valdez finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.