Who has the best home runs matchup today (Monday, July 20, 2026)?

Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Ryan Weathers. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.

What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Monday, July 20, 2026)?

The top home runs matchups on Monday, July 20, 2026: Esmerlyn Valdez (100), Mike Trout (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Shea Langeliers (100), Kyle Schwarber (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.

Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Monday, July 20, 2026?

Yes — Esmerlyn Valdez got 1 home run.

Which hitters have a platoon edge today?

Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .150 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year. Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .074 against lefties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.

How is the home runs matchup score calculated?

It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.

What does HR/PA mean?

It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.

What does the score actually mean?

Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.

What's the confidence meter?

It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.

What is a platoon split (handedness split)?

Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.

What are park factors?

This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.

What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?

The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.

What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?

"≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.

Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?

That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)

How accurate is the model?

We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.

When do lineups update?

Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.

Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.

Best MLB home runs matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026

Every slugger on the Monday, July 20, 2026 slate — ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run. Results show how each call played out.

Get notified on every DINGER today. Distance, exit velo, and launch angle the moment anyone goes yard — turn on live HR alerts.

How the model did — Monday, July 20, 2026

Our top 5 hitters went 2/5 (40%) on 1+ home run, against 21% on the season.

Top call Esmerlyn Valdez came through. Mike Trout didn't.

Each slugger below carries a 0–100 matchup score — a read on the spot in front of him, not a ranking of how good he is, so a star in a brutal matchup can sit below an average slugger in a soft one. Confidence next to it is coverage: how much real data backs the number. Every call here was graded against the box score — wins and misses both, with the record on this page. How this board is built →

Final · 4–13

MINaway

CLEhomeTop matchup59 Final · 5–8

PITaway

NYYhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–1

TBaway

TORhomeTop matchup69 Final · 7–10

LADaway

PHIhomeTop matchup98 Final · 5–6

BALaway

BOShomeTop matchup82 Final · 2–3

SDaway

ATLhomeTop matchup58 Final · 3–4

SFaway

KChomeTop matchup63 Final · 3–8

NYMaway

MILhomeTop matchup89 Final · 8–6

DETaway

CHChomeTop matchup60 Final · 10–3

CWSaway

TEXhomeTop matchup88 Final · 5–8

MIAaway

HOUhomeTop matchup100 Final · 7–3

WSHaway

COLhomeTop matchup81 Final · 5–2

ATHaway

AZhomeTop matchup100 Final · 0–8

CINaway

SEAhomeTop matchup62 Final · 2–3

STLaway

LAAhomeTop matchup100

Not starting67 not in the official lineup — moved to the bottom

PosSort

#Hitter · Matchup · 337 shownScore

45 with a HRMost recent first — newest homer up top

1
Jo AdellRF
LAAvsSTL· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #69
2
Cal RaleighC
SEAvsCIN· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #62
3
Ketel Marte2B
AZvsATH· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #9
4
Jacob WilsonSS
ATH@AZ· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #217
5
Joshua Kuroda-Grauer3B
ATH@AZ· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #226
6
Andrés Chaparro1B
WSH@COL· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #75
7
CJ AbramsSS
WSH@COL· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #190
8
Jacob YoungCF
WSH@COL· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #256
9
Yordan AlvarezDH
HOUvsMIA· 3-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.5 HR, #3
10
Joe MackC
MIA@HOU· 1-for-2
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #113
11
Liam HicksC
MIA@HOU· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #135
12
Jeremy PeñaSS
HOUvsMIA· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #155
13
Joc PedersonDH
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #37
14
Jake Burger1B
TEXvsCWS· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #86
15
Andrew Vaughn1B
MILvsNYM· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #204
16
Cooper PrattSS
MILvsNYM· 3-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #253
17
Joey OrtizSS
MILvsNYM· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #258
18
Willy AdamesSS
SF@KC· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #71
19
Heliot RamosLF
SF@KC· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #138
20
Salvador PerezDH
KCvsSF· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #143
21
Dillon DinglerC
DET@CHC· 4-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #72
22
Riley GreeneLF
DET@CHC· 2-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #26
23
Michael Busch1B
CHCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #43
24
Seiya SuzukiRF
CHCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #51
25
Ian HappLF
CHCvsDET· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #76
26
Manny Machado3B
SD@ATL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #47
27
Ty France1B
SD@ATL· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #54
28
Michael Harris IICF
ATLvsSD· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #140
29
Ozzie Albies2B
ATLvsSD· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #159
30
Trea TurnerSS
PHIvsLAD· 3-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #116
31
Mookie BettsSS
LAD@PHI· 4-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #134
32
Bryce Harper1B
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.3 HR, #18
33
Brandon MarshLF
PHIvsLAD· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #79
34
Caleb Durbin3B
BOSvsBAL· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #218
35
Christian Encarnacion-Strand3B
BAL@BOS· 2-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #231
36
Jazz Chisholm Jr.2B
NYYvsPIT· 2-for-4
2HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #104
37
Esmerlyn ValdezRF
PIT@NYY· 1-for-3
1HRFinal
Proj 0.6 HR, #1
38
Victor Mesa Jr.RF
TB@TOR· 1-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #58
39
Cedric MullinsCF
TB@TOR· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #137
40
Nick FortesC
TB@TOR· 2-for-4
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #224
41
Rhys Hoskins1B
CLEvsMIN· 2-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #191
42
Petey HalpinCF
CLEvsMIN· 3-for-5
2HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #257
43
Travis Bazzana2B
CLEvsMIN· 3-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.2 HR, #157
44
Brayan RocchioSS
CLEvsMIN· 1-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #241
45
Patrick BaileyC
CLEvsMIN· 4-for-5
1HRFinal
Proj 0.1 HR, #252

Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, July 20, 2026

Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) is the top home runs matchup on the Monday, July 20, 2026 board at 100, with Mike Trout (LAA) and Yordan Alvarez (HOU) right behind. Every hitter on the slate is ranked by who's most likely to hit a home run — power, the park, handedness splits, and how this arm gives up the long ball. It's the read DFS and prop players make before lock.

Top home runs spot: Esmerlyn Valdez

Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Ryan Weathers. The righty is going deep on .150 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 8% of his trips. And Ryan Weathers has been keeping the ball in the park against lefties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Ryan Weathers. It all sets up in a neutral park.

The rest of the top of the board

Mike Trout (LAA) (100) vs RHP Kyle Leahy: real bat at .046 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Janson Junk: big-time bat at .059 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Shea Langeliers (ATH) (100) vs LHP Mitch Bratt: elite bat at .066 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (98) vs RHP Emmet Sheehan: elite bat at .069 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Juan Soto (NYM) (89) vs RHP Jacob Misiorowski: big-time bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (88) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: elite bat at .068 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Coby Mayo (BAL) (82) vs LHP Payton Tolle: elite bat at .070 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).

Platoon edges to target

Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .150 against lefties this year.
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .074 against lefties this year.
Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.

How it played out

3 of the top 10 home runs matchups landed at least one home run. Top play Esmerlyn Valdez finished with 1 home run. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.

How to read these home runs matchups

Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.

Keep reading

What the home runs board is

The Home Runs board projects the chance a hitter goes deep, park and matchup baked in. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.

How the model gets its number

It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:

The hitter's power vs the pitcher's hand.
The park's home-run environment and the wind.
How hard and how often he hits it in the air.

Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.

Is there a betting edge here?

Home runs is one of the most efficiently priced props in the sport — every config we've backtested loses to the line, and our disagreements point away from the book's mistakes, not toward them. So HR is a transparency board: our projection, graded, no play attached. The honest read is the book is simply sharper here.

How to use it

Read it for who's in a live spot to run into one — but don't bet the WizLine against the line; there's no edge to press.

Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.

Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays

Frequently asked questions

Who has the best home runs matchup today (Monday, July 20, 2026)?: Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — top of the board at 100, facing LHP Ryan Weathers. Elite bat into a beatable arm is what pushes it to No. 1.
What are the best MLB home runs matchups today (Monday, July 20, 2026)?: The top home runs matchups on Monday, July 20, 2026: Esmerlyn Valdez (100), Mike Trout (100), Yordan Alvarez (100), Shea Langeliers (100), Kyle Schwarber (98). The full board ranks every hitter in every game by home runs upside.
Did the top home runs matchup get a home run on Monday, July 20, 2026?: Yes — Esmerlyn Valdez got 1 home run.
Which hitters have a platoon edge today?: Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .150 against lefties this year. Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year. Shea Langeliers (ATH) — righty bat vs LHP, .074 against lefties this year. Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year. Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
How is the home runs matchup score calculated?: It starts with his home-run rate per trip against that hand, weighted to recent form, then a two-year baseline so a hot fortnight doesn't run away with it. Then the arm's fly-ball tendencies, the bullpen, and the park and wind. Scores run 0–100 across the slate.
What does HR/PA mean?: It's the share of a hitter's plate appearances that end in a home run. Around .030 (3%) is league average. Elite power runs .065+. We measure it per trip to the plate, which is what a daily matchup comes down to.
What does the score actually mean?: Higher is better. But read this board knowing home runs are the rarest thing on the site: a 95 is a great spot, not a likely event. It ranks today's spots against each other — nobody's projected to go deep more often than not.
What's the confidence meter?: It's how much data is behind the call — sample size on both the hitter and the pitcher, plus whether the lineup's official. A high score with low confidence is a thinner read than the same score backed by a deep track record. It's not a probability of a home run.
What is a platoon split (handedness split)?: Power splits are sharper than contact splits. A lefty bat vs. a righty arm gets the pull-side dimensions and the breaking ball spinning into the barrel instead of away from it — that's the platoon split doing its loudest work. Same hitter, same swing, very different odds of one leaving.
What are park factors?: This is the board where the yard matters most. Dimensions, altitude, and a warm wind out can swing a fly ball from a track-out to a souvenir. Above 1.00 bumps the score, below 1.00 trims it — the same bat grades higher in Denver than in Detroit, and it should.
What do "2W", "SZN" and "2Y" mean?: The timeframes behind each rate: the last two weeks (recent form), the current season, and a trailing two years (a stable baseline). Recent form counts most, and small samples get pulled toward league average so a hot week doesn't fool the model.
What do "≈ est", "Due" and "Not starting" mean?: "≈ est" is a hitter we don't have splits for yet — a rookie or unmatched ID — shown at a league-baseline estimate instead of dropped. "Due" means he hasn't recorded a home run in a while and profiles for regression. "Not starting" means he was projected but didn't make the official lineup, so he slides to the bottom where you can still look him up.
Can I use this for home runs props or DFS?: That's what it's built for — pre-slate research. The board surfaces which hitters have the best conditions today, and where one exists, we show the book's "1+ home run" line so you can shop the price. We're not a sportsbook and we don't post picks — we show the matchup data, the line, and the result. (Best-price and all-book odds are a Pro feature.)
How accurate is the model?: We grade every board against the box score. Home runs are rare enough that the honest measure is rate over a season, not a week — the top of this board goes deep meaningfully more often than the slate, and you can check any past date to see it.
When do lineups update?: Projected lineups (marked "Proj") come from each team's last game. Official lineups usually drop about two hours before first pitch, and the board updates itself as they post. Batting order is a big driver, so it's worth a second look mid-afternoon — rankings shift as lineups lock.
Is MatchWiz free?: Yes. The full board, every game page, and the daily archive are free, no login. Best-price odds and the betting tools are the paid tier.