Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, July 19, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Brandon Young. The lefty is going deep on .073 HR/PA against righties this year — and .129 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Brandon Young has been getting taken deep by righties lately — .077 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Brandon Young too — .667 across 3 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (96) vs LHP Joey Cantillo: elite bat at .075 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (84) vs RHP the starter: big-time bat at .064 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Juan Soto (NYM) (83) vs RHP Alan Rangel: elite bat at .066 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (81) vs RHP Cam Schlittler: big-time bat at .061 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.028).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (80) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: big-time bat at .060 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (78) vs RHP Trey Yesavage: elite bat at .069 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (77) vs RHP Nolan McLean: elite bat at .069 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .139 against lefties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .076 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .045 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .081 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
279 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.