Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, July 25, 2026
Top home runs spot: Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Shota Imanaga. The righty is going deep on .152 HR/PA against lefties this year — and .200 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 9% of his trips. And Shota Imanaga has been keeping the ball in the park against lefties lately — .023 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Shota Imanaga. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (87) vs RHP Sean Burke: elite bat at .066 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040), hot bat.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (61) vs RHP Nolan McLean: big-time bat at .058 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) (60) vs RHP Hunter Brown: elite bat at .066 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.040).
- Juan Soto (NYM) (59) vs RHP Yoshinobu Yamamoto: big-time bat at .061 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (57) vs LHP Ryan Weathers: big-time bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Ben Rice (NYY) (53) vs RHP the starter: big-time bat at .059 into an arm with little track record against the same side.
- Byron Buxton (MIN) (52) vs RHP Mason Barnett: elite bat at .066 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
Platoon edges to target
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .152 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .079 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .043 against righties this year.
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .080 against righties this year.
- Juan Soto (NYM) — lefty bat vs RHP, .072 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.