Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Saturday, August 1, 2026
Top home runs spot: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Drew Rasmussen. The lefty is going deep on .087 HR/PA against righties this year — and .077 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 7% of his trips. And Drew Rasmussen has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Drew Rasmussen. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (94) vs RHP Jacob deGrom: big-time bat at .061 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (94) vs LHP Andrew Abbott: elite bat at .077 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.032).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (76) vs RHP Shane Baz: elite bat at .067 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (74) vs RHP Luinder Avila: elite bat at .066 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (69) vs RHP Reynaldo López: real bat at .049 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.045).
- Coby Mayo (BAL) (65) vs LHP Cristopher Sánchez: big-time bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Bryce Harper (PHI) (64) vs RHP Shane Baz: big-time bat at .053 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .087 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .123 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .061 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.