Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Sunday, August 2, 2026
Top home runs spot: Munetaka Murakami
Munetaka Murakami (CWS) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Griffin Jax. The lefty is going deep on .090 HR/PA against righties this year — and .100 over the last two weeks, elite bat that turns into a home run in about 8% of his trips. And Griffin Jax has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Griffin Jax. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (89) vs RHP Kumar Rocker: big-time bat at .061 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) (85) vs RHP Keider Montero: big-time bat at .059 into an arm homer-prone to the same side (.048), due to bounce back.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (73) vs RHP Kyle Bradish: elite bat at .067 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (67) vs LHP Jake Bennett: big-time bat at .058 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (65) vs RHP Chase Burns: big-time bat at .055 into an arm mostly containing the same side (.029), hot bat.
- Hunter Goodman (COL) (65) vs RHP Seth Lugo: elite bat at .065 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (61) vs RHP Seth Lugo: big-time bat at .059 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), hot bat.
Platoon edges to target
- Munetaka Murakami (CWS) — lefty bat vs RHP, .090 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
- Nick Kurtz (ATH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .054 against righties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .074 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
270 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.