Best MLB Home Runs Matchups — Monday, August 3, 2026
Top home runs spot: Yordan Alvarez
Yordan Alvarez (HOU) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Shane Bieber. The lefty is going deep on .073 HR/PA against righties this year — and .071 over the last two weeks, big-time bat that turns into a home run in about 6% of his trips. And Shane Bieber has been keeping the ball in the park against righties lately — .000 home runs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. He's owned Shane Bieber too — .500 across 8 career trips. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (86) vs RHP the starter: elite bat at .066 into an arm with little track record against the same side, due to bounce back.
- Ben Rice (NYY) (77) vs RHP Michael McGreevy: big-time bat at .057 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- James Wood (WSH) (76) vs RHP Aaron Nola: real bat at .049 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.094), due to bounce back.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (75) vs LHP Matthew Boyd: big-time bat at .058 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.050), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (68) vs RHP Michael Lorenzen: big-time bat at .059 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.000).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (65) vs RHP Brandon Sproat: big-time bat at .055 into an arm getting taken deep by the same side (.077).
- Joc Pederson (TEX) (63) vs RHP Logan Webb: big-time bat at .054 into an arm keeping the ball in the park against the same side (.023).
Platoon edges to target
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .073 against righties this year.
- Ben Rice (NYY) — lefty bat vs RHP, .075 against righties this year.
- James Wood (WSH) — lefty bat vs RHP, .060 against righties this year.
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) — lefty bat vs RHP, .059 against righties this year.
- Joc Pederson (TEX) — lefty bat vs RHP, .063 against righties this year.
Lineup watch
144 of today's hitters are still on projected lineups, drawn from each team's last game. Batting order drives the score, so these flip the moment official lineups post — usually about two hours before first pitch. Anyone who doesn't make the official card gets flagged "Not starting" and drops to the bottom.
How to read these home runs matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's home runs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.