Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, July 22, 2026
Top rbis spot: Jake Burger
Jake Burger (TEX) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Anthony Kay. The righty is driving in runs at .218 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .417 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 19% of his trips. And Anthony Kay has been mostly holding up against lefties lately — .111 RBIs per batter faced. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.5 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Anthony Kay. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) (100) vs LHP Max Fried: an elite bat at .288 into an arm with little track record against the same side, hot bat.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (100) vs RHP Sandy Alcantara: an excellent bat at .157 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.088), hot bat.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) (97) vs RHP Michael King: an elite bat at .181 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), due to bounce back.
- Riley Greene (DET) (94) vs RHP Colin Rea: an excellent bat at .159 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.067).
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (82) vs RHP Colin Rea: a strong bat at .139 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.313).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (81) vs RHP Braydon Fisher: an elite bat at .160 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.222).
- Seiya Suzuki (CHC) (78) vs RHP Keider Montero: a strong bat at .138 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.080).
Platoon edges to target
- Jake Burger (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .218 against lefties this year.
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .432 against lefties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .177 against righties this year.
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .180 against righties this year.
- Riley Greene (DET) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
How it played out
2 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Jake Burger finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays