Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Wednesday, August 5, 2026
Top rbis spot: Esmerlyn Valdez
Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) tops the board at 100, facing LHP Kyle Harrison. The righty is driving in runs at .339 RBI/PA against lefties this year — and .111 over the last two weeks, an elite bat that turns into a RBI in about 22% of his trips. And Kyle Harrison has been thin against lefties lately. One catch: the bullpen behind him has been stingy to that side late. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.3 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Kyle Harrison. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- James McCann (AZ) (100) vs RHP Casey Mize: an elite bat at .201 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.000), hot bat.
- Eduardo Valencia (DET) (91) vs RHP Bryan Woo: an elite bat at .194 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.294).
- Jake Burger (TEX) (75) vs LHP Carson Whisenhunt: an elite bat at .168 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.270).
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) (71) vs RHP Jake Irvin: an excellent bat at .152 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.133), due to bounce back.
- Dillon Dingler (DET) (70) vs RHP Bryan Woo: an excellent bat at .143 into an arm getting lit up by the same side (.294), hot bat.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) (70) vs RHP Nick Martinez: an elite bat at .167 into an arm vulnerable to the same side (.132).
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) (68) vs RHP Tomoyuki Sugano: an excellent bat at .153 into an arm stingy with runs against the same side (.091).
Platoon edges to target
- Esmerlyn Valdez (PIT) — righty bat vs LHP, .339 against lefties this year.
- Jake Burger (TEX) — righty bat vs LHP, .192 against lefties this year.
- Kyle Schwarber (PHI) — lefty bat vs RHP, .119 against righties this year.
- Mickey Moniak (COL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .187 against righties this year.
- Jonathan Aranda (TB) — lefty bat vs RHP, .178 against righties this year.
How it played out
3 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Esmerlyn Valdez finished with 0 RBIs. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays