Best MLB RBIs Matchups — Tuesday, August 18, 2026
Top rbis spot: Drake Baldwin
Drake Baldwin (ATL) tops the board at 100, facing RHP Zebby Matthews. The lefty is driving in runs at .158 RBI/PA against righties this year — and .105 over the last two weeks, an excellent bat that turns into a RBI in about 14% of his trips. And Zebby Matthews has been getting lit up by righties lately — .346 RBIs per batter faced. The bullpen behind him is roughly average to that side. He's hitting in a spot worth about 4.7 trips, so the volume's there. No real history against Zebby Matthews. It all sets up in a neutral park.
The rest of the top of the board
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) (100) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .135 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103).
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) (92) vs RHP George Klassen: a strong bat at .134 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103).
- Andy Pages (LAD) (89) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .135 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.105).
- Max Muncy (LAD) (88) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .140 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103).
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) (87) vs RHP Ryan Feltner: a strong bat at .130 into an arm mostly holding up against the same side (.103).
- Brandon Lowe (PIT) (87) vs RHP Keider Montero: an excellent bat at .147 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.121), hot bat.
- Junior Caminero (TB) (87) vs RHP José Soriano: an excellent bat at .142 into an arm giving up runs to the same side (.118).
Platoon edges to target
- Drake Baldwin (ATL) — lefty bat vs RHP, .158 against righties this year.
- Shohei Ohtani (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .142 against righties this year.
- Yordan Alvarez (HOU) — lefty bat vs RHP, .168 against righties this year.
- Max Muncy (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .143 against righties this year.
- Freddie Freeman (LAD) — lefty bat vs RHP, .136 against righties this year.
How it played out
5 of the top 10 rbis matchups landed at least one RBI. Top play Drake Baldwin finished with 1 RBI. We post the result next to every projection so you can grade the board yourself — and so the model gets re-tuned against what actually happened.
How to read these rbis matchups
Each score (0–100) starts with the hitter's RBIs per plate appearance against the hand he's facing — weighted toward the last two weeks, then the season, then a two-year baseline. Then it layers in the bullpen, his spot in the order, and park and weather. Higher means more of it points his way. It's context, not a lock — a great spot still goes 0-for-4 sometimes, and a tough one runs into one. The edge is in stacking the odds, and since we grade every board, you can see how often the top of the list delivers.
What the RBIs board is
The RBIs board projects the chance a hitter drives in a run, given his slot and the bats around him. One statistical model scores every matchup on the slate the same way — a star and a backup judged on the matchup in front of them, not their name — and every number is graded against the real box score once the games go final.
How the model gets its number
It isn't a gut call or a name game. The projection is built from a few things:
- His run-driving rate.
- How often the hitters ahead of him are on base.
- The arm he faces and the park.
Those pieces combine into one number, and the model re-tunes itself weekly against how its past calls actually landed.
Is there a betting edge here?
RBIs is lumpy — runs cluster — and once you price the 1+ line with a clustering-aware model instead of a naive one, the apparent edge vanishes. It grades efficient. So this is a transparency board.
How to use it
Good for spotting the cleanup-spot smash setups; not a market we've found a bettable edge in.
Everything here is a research signal from the model, graded in public — not betting advice, and no outcome is guaranteed.
Learn more: How the model works · The picks story · Today's plays